| 1. |
- Liwång, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Ship security challenges in high-risk areas : manageable or insurmountable?
- 2015
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Ingår i: WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs (JoMA). - : Springer Berlin/Heidelberg. - 1651-436X .- 1654-1642. ; 14:2, s. 201-217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Piracy can lead to risks so high that they, according to the International Maritime Organization, are tolerable only if risk reduction is not practicable or is disproportionate to the benefits achieved. Therefore, there is a need for reducing ship security risks in relation to antagonistic threats such as piracy. The aim of this study is to identify challenges for ship operators when developing their ship security management. Furthermore, this study also investigates two central aspects in the analysis: understanding the threat and understanding how a security threat affects the crew and operation of the ship. It is clear from the analysis that the importance of subjective aspects beyond a ship operators’ direct control is high. This seems to be the fact for all aspects of the risk management process. The situation is also dynamic as the security risk, as well as the risk perception, can change dramatically even though there are no actual operational changes. As a result, the ship security management process is highly iterative and depends on situations on board as well as conditions out of the ship operator’s control. In order to make ship security manageable, the risk management has to put particular focus on methodological understanding, relevant system understanding and well-defined risk acceptance criteria as well as on including all levels of the organization in the risk reduction implementation and on a continuous monitoring.
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| 2. |
- Liwång, Hans, 1974, et al.
(författare)
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Quantitative risk analysis – Ship security analysis for effective risk control options
- 2013
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Ingår i: Safety Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 0925-7535 .- 1879-1042. ; 58:1, s. 98-112
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options.The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat’s capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship’s vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding.The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analysed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today’s security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.
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| 3. |
- Liwång, Hans, 1974-
(författare)
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Risk-based ship security analysis – an approach based on civilian and military methods
- 2012
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The demands on maritime operations today are increasingly higher in terms of control, efficiency and cost. The margins for accidents and security incidents are therefore decreasing. In the area of ship safety the regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicized and therefore not as transparent. The result is that a tradition of ship security is not as well established.The overall aim of this thesis is to propose a method for ship security analysis that increases the overall safety of the crew and the ship. The objective is to develop a method that is systematic in order to ensure that assessment and response are complete and effective, and that the process is documented to provide evidence of decision-making.The method used is probabilistic risk assessment where quantitative analysis is central. The proposed approach is consistent with the requirements of maritime safety work. However, in the work here, the proposed methods are specifically tested for security cases. This is because hazards (without intent) and threats (with intent) evolve in different ways into risk. Therefore, they must be analysed differently in order to capture the causal relationship.The proposed approach consists of three steps: the first step consists of a threat description that documents qualitative and quantitative aspects that together describe how the threat most likely will act in relation to the ship’s vulnerability; the second step uses the threat description to define the system studied as well as the scenarios that collectively describe the harmful consequences; the third step evaluates the risk with tools from probabilistic risk assessment.The overall conclusion is that the proposed method brings the procedure and results of ship security analysis into the open and therefore allows for criticism, improvements and shared risk knowledge, not possible with less structured methods. The results also show that the calculated probabilities agree with available statistics, which indicates that the analysis succeeds in describing the central causal relationships of the scenarios modelled.
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| 4. |
- Liwång, Hans, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Ship security analysis : the effect of ship speed and effective lookout
- 2013
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the ASME 32nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 2013). - : ASME Press. - 9780791855324
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The threat of piracy to commercial shipping is a concern for the protection and safeguarding of human lives, property and environment. Therefore, ships under piracy threat should follow security measures suggested by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somali. It is, therefore, important to choose the proper security measures for the right situation.This study presents a simulation model that can be used for probabilistic risk assessments regarding the operation of commercial ships. This investigation specifically studies the pirate approach phase and quantifies the effect of ship speed and effective lookout. The purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment into the analysis of pirate attacks is to meet safety goals more effectively through a well-balanced combination of proactive and reactive measures whilst keeping focus on the intended over all purpose of the particular ship.The study presents collected and documented knowledge regarding pirate capability, intention and likelihood to perform attacks. The knowledge is collected from experts with experience from the situation off the Horn of Africa. The collected information is input to an influence analysis that identifies the network of influences that govern the skiff approach. The simulation model describes piracy characteristics and decision making on the threatened ship, the characteristics and countermeasures of the ship under attack, as well as weather.Based on a comparison with available statistics the overall conclusion of the work is that the threat analysis and the simulation model can quantify and explain how the studied risk control options affect the probability of a successful approach. The result therefore exemplifies how a quantified ship security analysis can support the recommendations in industry guidelines and also enable recommendations that to a greater extent can facilitate an educated decision by the ship operators.
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| 5. |
- Ávila-Zúñiga Nordfjeld, Adriana, 1977-, et al.
(författare)
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Proposing a Mathematical Dynamic Model to Develop a National Maritime Security Assessment and Build a National Maritime Security Plan
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Maritime Research. - : Universidad de Cantabria. - 1697-4840 .- 1697-9133. ; 20:3, s. 123-132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A proper assessment of maritime security risks at the national level is crucial to a national maritime security plan (NMSP) in order to secure the concerned country’s ports, vessels and territorial sea. Thus, the importance of implementing a national maritime security assessment (NMSA) to counter security threats and ensure the continuity of national and international trade. The most important set of international regulations concerning maritime security is the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code, which includes revision, approval and control of compliance of the Port Facility Security Plan (PFSP), which shall be based upon the Port Facility Security Assessment (PFSA). This paper proposes a mathematical dynamic model that calculates in real time the residual risk for the whole country and each of its ports by adapting and expanding the formula and procedures established in the Code, which since it has already been implemented around the world, gives the opportunity to take advantage of this quantitative solution to administrate maritime security risks on a nation-wide basis and create an effective national maritime security plan, which would allow the concerned authorities to improve situational awareness and adapt to security changes through a better planning of human, economic and material resources to deter security threats. The model was tested with the use of five encoded categories as countries, each of them with three ports, which encompassed three port facilities. The results indicate that this methodology is easy to implement and widespread use of that model could strength robustness in national security.
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| 6. |
- Uhr, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Once upon a time in Västmanland : the power of narratives or how the “truth” unfolds
- 2016
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Ingår i: ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings. - : ISCRAM. - 2411-3387. - 9788460879848
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2014 a small fire started in a forest in central Sweden. Within a few days it developed into the largest wildfire in Sweden in the last 50 years. As the scale of the fire increased, so did the need for direction and coordination of the resources engaged in the response operation. Both official investigators and the research community have studied the challenges and come up with recommendations for improvements of the Swedish crisis management system. All authors of this paper have been involved in such efforts. This paper is a result of us trying to formulate lessons learnt based on several written reports and official discussions. The development of the narratives constructed by individuals involved in the response, investigators and researchers is analyzed. We conclude that researchers need to pay attention to their own role in this development. Maybe there is a need for a game changer on the methodological side?
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| 7. |
- Liwång, Hans
(författare)
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Riskanalys inom fartygsskydd - en analysstrategi för bättre beslutsunderlag
- 2015
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Ingår i: Tidskrift i sjöväsendet. - Stockholm : Kungl. Örlogsmannasällskapet. - 0040-6945. ; :2, s. 151-168
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Sjöfartsskydd bedrivs idag både av militära styrkor och civila redare. Det är inte ofarligt, men nödvändigt och viktigt. Med fokus på säkerhetshot undersöker denna avhandling hur fartyg ska förbereda sig inför potentiellt farlig verksamhet, det vill säga hur man skapar ett lämpligt riskmedvetande i förhållande till fartygsskydd.Inom sjösäkerhet har regler, rekommendationer och metoder systematiskt utvecklats under många år. Inom sjöfartsskydd är däremot frågorna inte lika belysta och angreppssätten och erfarenheterna är ofta dolda bakom hemligstämplar. Det är rimligt att anta att riskanalysmetoder från andra områden kan användas även för sjöfartsskyddsanalyser, men inte utan att metoderna anpassas till områdets specifika behov. Därför leder den begränsade forskningen och dokumentationen inom området till ett kunskapsgap.För att reducera de identifierade utmaningarna inom sjöfartsskydd undersöks i avhandling hur en lämplig analysstrategi för fartygsskydd ser ut. För att öka den övergripande säkerheten för de analyserade verksamheterna ska metoden kunna stötta nödvändiga kompromisser mellan sjösäkerhet och fartygsskydd. Syftet är att utveckla en analysstrategi som är systematisk och som ger beslutsfattaren en lämplig bild av de aktuella riskerna. För att undersöka detta område behandlas i avhandlingen både hot mot militära fartyg och hotet mot civila fartyg från sjöröveri. Därför kan resultatet användas för att utveckla både militära doktriner och civila riktlinjer.Studien visar att hur fartygets verksamhet beskrivs i analysen är centralt för resultatet och därmed förståelsen av riskerna. Inte bara skyddslösningar i sig, utan även besättningens riskförståelse och hur det implementerade skyddet förstås måste inkluderas i analysen. Hur det implementerade skyddet förstås kommer också i stor utsträckning att påverka effektiviteten hos implementerade åtgärder. I avhandlingen konstateras också att om analysen görs utan att ta hänsyn till de osäkerheter som finns kan det innebära att resultatet är missvisande. Därför är den osäkerhetsanalys som är möjlig med ett kvantitativt angreppssätt nödvändig, speciellt om syftet är att identifiera robusta skyddsåtgärder.
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| 8. |
- Robinson, Yohan, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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AI och framtidens försvarsmedicin
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Medicinskt legitimerad personal är, och kommer med stor sannolikhet fortsattatt vara, en knapp resurs inom Försvarsmaktens sjukvårdsorganisation. I denna rapport ges en översikt över pågående och planerade ansatser baserade påartificiell intelligens (AI) inom akutsjukvård med särskild tonvikt på omhändertagandet av traumapatienter, där lösningarna skulle kunna bidra till att Försvarsmakten kan bibehålla sin sjukvårdskapacitet i kritiska lägen. Rapporten är ett resultat av samarbetet mellan FM, FOI, FMV, FHS och KI, och vänder sig i första hand till Försvarsmaktens strategiska ledning.Användningen av AI-teknik i framtida beslutsstöd kan skapa nya möjligheter till avlastning av personal och resurseffektivisering. Tekniken ger möjligheter att i realtid samla in, bearbeta och analysera stora mängder blandadinformation om förbands hälsoläge och fysiska stridsvärde. Bedömning av skadade kan t.ex. göras av triagedrönare och den efterföljande evakueringen kanunderlättas av intelligenta autonoma plattformar. Införandet av AI-system ställer dock vårdgivaren inför svåra etiska och medikolegala överväganden.Försvarsmedicin har en central roll i Försvarsmaktens krigföringsförmåga och för samhällets uthållighet. För att nyttja hela AI-teknikens framfart till Försvarsmaktens nytta måste dess innebörd och konsekvens för försvarsmedicinen förstås. Därför rekommenderar denna studie att Försvarsmaktens framtida satsningar inom AI och autonomi inkluderar den försvarsmedicinska teknikutveckling som är beskriven i denna rapport.
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| 9. |
- Bang, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Influences on threat assessment in a military context
- 2016
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Ingår i: Defense and Security Analysis. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1475-1798 .- 1475-1801. ; 32:3, s. 264-277
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.
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| 10. |
- Liwång, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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An examination of the implementation of risk based approaches in military operations
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Military Studies. - Helsinki : National Defense University, Finland and Finnish Society of Military Sciences. - 1799-3350 .- 2242-3524. ; 5:2, s. 1-27
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis.From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.
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