| 1. |
- Bang, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Influences on threat assessment in a military context
- 2016
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Ingår i: Defense and Security Analysis. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1475-1798 .- 1475-1801. ; 32:3, s. 264-277
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.
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| 2. |
- Liwång, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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An examination of the implementation of risk based approaches in military operations
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Military Studies. - Helsinki : National Defense University, Finland and Finnish Society of Military Sciences. - 1799-3350 .- 2242-3524. ; 5:2, s. 1-27
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis.From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.
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| 3. |
- Liwång, Hans, Docent, Lektor, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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How can systemic perspectives on defence capability development be strengthened?
- 2023
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Ingår i: Defence Studies. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1470-2436 .- 1743-9698. ; 23:3, s. 399-420
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the last thirty years, suggestions for how to develop defence capability have developed rapidly. However, supporting theory and structured concept development lag behind. Despite this imbalance, countries need to continuously spend resources on defence development. This study identifies central challenges in relation to the scientific perspectives and approaches needed to support the development of defence capability. The results show that the support for developing interactions between technology and social components is especially weak and that relevant supporting theories and methods from related fields are not considered. This study also shows that it is important to be able to address these questions from various perspectives and not to be limited by a specific scientific tradition. Finally, this study also identifies a possible emerging cluster of reports on capability-related research that provide a base for a much-needed cross-disciplinary approach to the development of defence capability.
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| 4. |
- Liwång, Hans, 1974-
(författare)
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Risk-based ship security analysis – an approach based on civilian and military methods
- 2012
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The demands on maritime operations today are increasingly higher in terms of control, efficiency and cost. The margins for accidents and security incidents are therefore decreasing. In the area of ship safety the regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicized and therefore not as transparent. The result is that a tradition of ship security is not as well established.The overall aim of this thesis is to propose a method for ship security analysis that increases the overall safety of the crew and the ship. The objective is to develop a method that is systematic in order to ensure that assessment and response are complete and effective, and that the process is documented to provide evidence of decision-making.The method used is probabilistic risk assessment where quantitative analysis is central. The proposed approach is consistent with the requirements of maritime safety work. However, in the work here, the proposed methods are specifically tested for security cases. This is because hazards (without intent) and threats (with intent) evolve in different ways into risk. Therefore, they must be analysed differently in order to capture the causal relationship.The proposed approach consists of three steps: the first step consists of a threat description that documents qualitative and quantitative aspects that together describe how the threat most likely will act in relation to the ship’s vulnerability; the second step uses the threat description to define the system studied as well as the scenarios that collectively describe the harmful consequences; the third step evaluates the risk with tools from probabilistic risk assessment.The overall conclusion is that the proposed method brings the procedure and results of ship security analysis into the open and therefore allows for criticism, improvements and shared risk knowledge, not possible with less structured methods. The results also show that the calculated probabilities agree with available statistics, which indicates that the analysis succeeds in describing the central causal relationships of the scenarios modelled.
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| 5. |
- Liwång, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Ship security challenges in high-risk areas : manageable or insurmountable?
- 2015
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Ingår i: WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs (JoMA). - : Springer Berlin/Heidelberg. - 1651-436X .- 1654-1642. ; 14:2, s. 201-217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Piracy can lead to risks so high that they, according to the International Maritime Organization, are tolerable only if risk reduction is not practicable or is disproportionate to the benefits achieved. Therefore, there is a need for reducing ship security risks in relation to antagonistic threats such as piracy. The aim of this study is to identify challenges for ship operators when developing their ship security management. Furthermore, this study also investigates two central aspects in the analysis: understanding the threat and understanding how a security threat affects the crew and operation of the ship. It is clear from the analysis that the importance of subjective aspects beyond a ship operators’ direct control is high. This seems to be the fact for all aspects of the risk management process. The situation is also dynamic as the security risk, as well as the risk perception, can change dramatically even though there are no actual operational changes. As a result, the ship security management process is highly iterative and depends on situations on board as well as conditions out of the ship operator’s control. In order to make ship security manageable, the risk management has to put particular focus on methodological understanding, relevant system understanding and well-defined risk acceptance criteria as well as on including all levels of the organization in the risk reduction implementation and on a continuous monitoring.
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| 6. |
- Liwång, Hans, Docent, Lektor, 1974-
(författare)
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The possible use of nuclear weapons push the envelop of military risk management
- 2024
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Ingår i: Georgetown journal of international law.
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- According to often described military risk management principles, risk managementshould be integrated cyclically and continuously into all phases of missions and operationsand risk decisions should be made at the appropriate level.1In such a decision perspective,military aims, tactics, technology, laws, ethics, and values need to be integrated. It is all theseaspects together that create military capability.
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| 7. |
- Sörenson, Karl, 1978-
(författare)
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Comparable Deterrence : Target, Criteria and Purpose
- 2017
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Ingår i: Defence Studies. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1470-2436 .- 1743-9698. ; 17:2, s. 198-213
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The last decade has seen several advances in the study of deterrence. These advances have sparked some strong disagreements regarding interpretation of the models and what their contributions signify. This paper appraises the discussions from a model theoretic perspective. It is argued that when comparing rivalling models three aspects; (i) target, (ii) criteria and (iii) type of purpose should be taken into account in order to make a proper appraisal. Informed by these aspects it is evident that the three deterrence models analysed address different aspects, in different ways and to different ends. From this perspective, the so-called Perfect Deterrence model must be recognised as a clear advancement in the research field. Model comparison will always be context relative and a plurality of models should be viewed favourably.
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| 8. |
- Ávila-Zúñiga Nordfjeld, Adriana, 1977-, et al.
(författare)
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Proposing a Mathematical Dynamic Model to Develop a National Maritime Security Assessment and Build a National Maritime Security Plan
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Maritime Research. - : Universidad de Cantabria. - 1697-4840 .- 1697-9133. ; 20:3, s. 123-132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A proper assessment of maritime security risks at the national level is crucial to a national maritime security plan (NMSP) in order to secure the concerned country’s ports, vessels and territorial sea. Thus, the importance of implementing a national maritime security assessment (NMSA) to counter security threats and ensure the continuity of national and international trade. The most important set of international regulations concerning maritime security is the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code, which includes revision, approval and control of compliance of the Port Facility Security Plan (PFSP), which shall be based upon the Port Facility Security Assessment (PFSA). This paper proposes a mathematical dynamic model that calculates in real time the residual risk for the whole country and each of its ports by adapting and expanding the formula and procedures established in the Code, which since it has already been implemented around the world, gives the opportunity to take advantage of this quantitative solution to administrate maritime security risks on a nation-wide basis and create an effective national maritime security plan, which would allow the concerned authorities to improve situational awareness and adapt to security changes through a better planning of human, economic and material resources to deter security threats. The model was tested with the use of five encoded categories as countries, each of them with three ports, which encompassed three port facilities. The results indicate that this methodology is easy to implement and widespread use of that model could strength robustness in national security.
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| 9. |
- Axberg, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Lärobok i Militärteknik, vol. 9 : Teori och metod
- 2013. - 1
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Ämnet militärteknik utgår från att tekniska system är officerens arbetsredskap och att en förståelse för och kunskap om dessa verktyg är central för att kunna utöva professionen framgångsrikt. Denna nionde volym av Lärobok i Militärteknik, benämnd Teori och Metod, behandlar centrala begrepp, teorier och postulat samt metoder för värdering av teknik och består av ett antal texter författade av 16 forskare och lärare vid den militärtekniska avdelningen. Volymen riktar sig främst till de som inlett sin officersutbildning och utgörs till stora delar av ett kompilat av publicerade och opublicerade militärtekniska texter och kan sägas utgöra militärteknikens ”state of the art”.
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| 10. |
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