| 1. |
- Bang, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Influences on threat assessment in a military context
- 2016
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Ingår i: Defense and Security Analysis. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1475-1798 .- 1475-1801. ; 32:3, s. 264-277
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.
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| 2. |
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Katastrofriskreducering: Perspektiv, praktik, potential
- 2016
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Samlingsverk (redaktörskap) (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Varför bosätter sig människor på riskfyllda platser? Hur beter sig människor i en katastrof och vilken betydelse har religion, hushåll och försörjning för återhämtning? Lär vi oss av våra kriserfarenheter och vilken roll spelar motivation och kollektiva minnen för detta? Är kapacitetsutveckling, multisektoriell samverkan och övning en hållbar väg mot reducerad katastrofrisk? Dessa är några av de många frågor som denna bok besvarar. Katastrofriskreducering är ett växande område, såväl politiskt som inom forskning och utbildning. Det handlar om att förstå de samhällsprocesser som skapar risk för katastrofer och som påverkar villkoren för organisationer och individer att hantera dem. Denna kunskap kan bidra till att minska exponering och sårbarhet för människor, egendom och miljö och utveckla samhällens, organisationers och enskildas förmåga att reducera risker och hantera katastrofers konsekvenser, vad som på senare tid kallas resiliens. Katastrofriskreducering innehåller både teoretiska kapitel och empiriska fallstudier baserade på aktuell forskning om katastrofriskreducering. Boken ger läsaren en god översikt av detta mångvetenskapliga kunskapsområde, genom att beskriva och problematisera centrala begrepp och perspektiv. Det här är en bok som vänder sig till såväl studenter och forskare som praktiskt verksamma beslutsfattare inom krisberedskap, humanitära insatser och riskhantering på myndigheter, i kommunal verksamhet och i icke-statliga organisationer.
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| 3. |
- Larsdotter, Kersti, 1974-
(författare)
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Fighting Transnational Insurgents : the South African Defence Force in Namibia, 1966-1989
- 2014
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Ingår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. - 1057-610X .- 1521-0731. ; 37:12, s. 1024-1038
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Transnational insurgents are a common feature of contemporary wars, but research on how to address this problem is still scarce. This article examines the South African Defence Force's (SADF) counterinsurgency against Namibian transnational insurgents. It concludes that the South African forces focused a large amount of their efforts outside the borders of Namibia. Highly coercive operations in Angola and Zambia created the space for hearts and minds activities in Namibia, as well as forcing neighboring states to end their support for the insurgents. Although the war in Namibia is somewhat different from contemporary wars, SADF's cross-border strategy gives us some important insights into the regional dynamics of civil wars.
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| 4. |
- Liwång, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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An examination of the implementation of risk based approaches in military operations
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Military Studies. - Helsinki : National Defense University, Finland and Finnish Society of Military Sciences. - 1799-3350 .- 2242-3524. ; 5:2, s. 1-27
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis.From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.
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| 5. |
- Liwång, Hans, 1974-
(författare)
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Risk-based ship security analysis – an approach based on civilian and military methods
- 2012
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The demands on maritime operations today are increasingly higher in terms of control, efficiency and cost. The margins for accidents and security incidents are therefore decreasing. In the area of ship safety the regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicized and therefore not as transparent. The result is that a tradition of ship security is not as well established.The overall aim of this thesis is to propose a method for ship security analysis that increases the overall safety of the crew and the ship. The objective is to develop a method that is systematic in order to ensure that assessment and response are complete and effective, and that the process is documented to provide evidence of decision-making.The method used is probabilistic risk assessment where quantitative analysis is central. The proposed approach is consistent with the requirements of maritime safety work. However, in the work here, the proposed methods are specifically tested for security cases. This is because hazards (without intent) and threats (with intent) evolve in different ways into risk. Therefore, they must be analysed differently in order to capture the causal relationship.The proposed approach consists of three steps: the first step consists of a threat description that documents qualitative and quantitative aspects that together describe how the threat most likely will act in relation to the ship’s vulnerability; the second step uses the threat description to define the system studied as well as the scenarios that collectively describe the harmful consequences; the third step evaluates the risk with tools from probabilistic risk assessment.The overall conclusion is that the proposed method brings the procedure and results of ship security analysis into the open and therefore allows for criticism, improvements and shared risk knowledge, not possible with less structured methods. The results also show that the calculated probabilities agree with available statistics, which indicates that the analysis succeeds in describing the central causal relationships of the scenarios modelled.
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| 6. |
- Liwång, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Ship security challenges in high-risk areas : manageable or insurmountable?
- 2015
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Ingår i: WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs (JoMA). - : Springer Berlin/Heidelberg. - 1651-436X .- 1654-1642. ; 14:2, s. 201-217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Piracy can lead to risks so high that they, according to the International Maritime Organization, are tolerable only if risk reduction is not practicable or is disproportionate to the benefits achieved. Therefore, there is a need for reducing ship security risks in relation to antagonistic threats such as piracy. The aim of this study is to identify challenges for ship operators when developing their ship security management. Furthermore, this study also investigates two central aspects in the analysis: understanding the threat and understanding how a security threat affects the crew and operation of the ship. It is clear from the analysis that the importance of subjective aspects beyond a ship operators’ direct control is high. This seems to be the fact for all aspects of the risk management process. The situation is also dynamic as the security risk, as well as the risk perception, can change dramatically even though there are no actual operational changes. As a result, the ship security management process is highly iterative and depends on situations on board as well as conditions out of the ship operator’s control. In order to make ship security manageable, the risk management has to put particular focus on methodological understanding, relevant system understanding and well-defined risk acceptance criteria as well as on including all levels of the organization in the risk reduction implementation and on a continuous monitoring.
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| 7. |
- Mohlin, Marcus, 1965-
(författare)
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Cloak and Dagger in Libya : The Libyan Thuwar and the Role of Allied Special Forces
- 2013
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Ingår i: The NATO Intervention in Libya. - London : Routledge. - 9780415705493
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The NATO led intervention in Libya has very often been described as consisting of navy and air forces and that they contributed to the winning of the campaign. Not fully recognised is the fact that many nations also sent contingents of special forces in support of operations. These special operations forces trained and advised many rebel groups that contributed to the outcome of the conflict.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Schüler, Martin
(författare)
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Säkerhet och taktik : militär säkerhetskunskap
- 2020
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Ingår i: Kungl Krigsvetenskapsakademiens Handlingar och Tidskrift. - 0023-5369. ; :3, s. 171-174
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The article argues for a changed perspective on military tactics and safety. By seeing militarytactics as safety knowledge, a wider perspective can be applied to a military problem. Safety isin fact a military core capability impossible to exclude from any military operation. By ignoringsafety, one becomes susceptible to embedded safety flaws, increasing organizational hazards.This could cause mission failure and exposing military personnel to occupational safety risks.
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| 10. |
- Scott, David, 1986-, et al.
(författare)
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Capturing the citizen perspective in crisis management exercises: possibilities and challenges
- 2014
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Ingår i: International Journal of Emergency Services. - : Emerald Group Publishing Limited. - 2047-0894 .- 2047-0908. ; 04:1, s. 82-102
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose – Supporting and communicating with citizens is a vital part of societal crisis management. Training exercises may offer an opportunity to develop capabilities among managers in this regard. The purpose of this paper is to examine this potential in an analysis of how citizens were portrayed and perceived by participants in a major crisis management exercise.Design/methodology/approach – Observation, document analysis and short interviews during the exercise were used as data collection methods. Data were subjected to thematic analysis to capture core themes in relation to the research aim. Findings – Patterns in how citizens’ reactions were portrayed in the exercise were identified to form a citizen behaviour typology. Observations during the exercise also demonstrated some of the challenges in incorporating the citizen perspective. However, findings regarding the perception of the citizen perspective also demonstrate the ability of exercise participants to meet and respond to public behaviours with respect and seriousness.Originality/value – Variation is an important condition for learning in exercises, and the identified typology is suggested as a starting point for achieving this in incorporation of the citizen perspective in training scenarios. The results of the study are discussed in terms of a learning framework with the aim of explicitly developing crisis managers’ ability to interact and communicate with citizens in crisis situations.
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