| 1. |
- Sandberg, Mikael, 1956-
(författare)
-
Soft Power, World System Dynamics, and Democratization : A Bass Model of Democracy Diffusion 1800–2000
- 2011
-
Ingår i: JASSS. - Surrey : JASSS. - 1460-7425. ; 14:(1) 4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Political scientists seldom translate system terminology into systems analysis. This article uses Polity IV data to probe system dynamics for studies of the global diffusion of democracy from 1800 to 2000. By analogy with the Bass model of diffusion of innovations (1969), as translated into system dynamics by Sterman (2000), the dynamic explanation proposed focuses on transitions to democracy, soft power, and communication rates on a global level. The analysis suggests that the transition from democratic experiences (“the soft power of democracy”) can be estimated from the systems dynamics simulation of an extended Bass model. Soft power, fueled by the growth in communications worldwide, is today the major force behind the diffusion of democracy. Our findings indicate the applicability of system dynamics simulation tools for the analysis of political change over time in the world system of polities.
|
|
| 2. |
- Lindenfors, Patrik, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
-
The Cultural Evolution of Democracy : Saltational Changes in A Political Regime Landscape
- 2011
-
Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - San Francisco : Public Library of Science. - 1932-6203. ; 6:11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Transitions to democracy are most often considered the outcome of historical modernization processes. Socio-economic changes, such as increases in per capita GNP, education levels, urbanization and communication, have traditionally been found to be correlates or ‘requisites’ of democratic reform. However, transition times and the number of reform steps have not been studied comprehensively. Here we show that historically, transitions to democracy have mainly occurred through rapid leaps rather than slow and incremental transition steps, with a median time from autocracy to democracy of 2.4 years, and overnight in the reverse direction. Our results show that autocracy and democracy have acted as peaks in an evolutionary landscape of possible modes of institutional arrangements. Only scarcely have there been slow incremental transitions. We discuss our results in relation to the application of phylogenetic comparative methods in cultural evolution and point out that the evolving unit in this system is the institutional arrangement, not the individual country which is instead better regarded as the ‘host’ for the political system.
|
|
| 3. |
- Sandberg, Mikael, 1956-
(författare)
-
Hur skapas demokratier? : Förklaring av demokratispridning genom systemdynamisk simulering
- 2008
-
Ingår i: Tvärsnitt. ; :4, s. 36-39
-
Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Demokratistudier har länge tillhört statsvetenskapens kärnområden. Ändå har man inte inom ämnet kunnat enas om en entydig förklaring till den moderna demokratins framväxt. En svaghet i många analyser är att man söker förklaringar till demokratin genom statistiska sambandsanalyser med samtida faktorer och förbiser de förändringar som sker globalt snarare än nationellt, menar statsvetaren Mikael Sandberg. I ett försök att komma till rätta med detta använder han sig av en Bass-grundad diffusionsmodell för att få fram en dynamisk förklaring till demokratins spridning 1800—2000.
|
|
| 4. |
- Rånge, Max, 1975-, et al.
(författare)
-
“Civilizations” and Political-Institutional Paths : A Sequence Analysis of the MaxRange2 Data Set, 1789 – 2013
- 2014
-
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In what sequences have nations changed institutionally in history and does that order matter for later democratization? If so, are there historical-institutional pathways of “civilizations”? These previously neglected research problems are addressed in this paper on the basis of a new, unique, and enormous data set tracking all political institutions and systems in the world monthly since 1789. The aim is both empirical and theoretical: to take steps toward an understanding of the sequential aspects of political-institutional evolution. Results visualize sequences at regime level that show few signs of path dependency. They also show that democracy may emerge in all types of regimes, though at varying paces. Separating religious-majority nations, Muslim systems are less affected by democracy diffusion than other religious-majority nations. Muslim political systems also exhibit larger regime type unpredictability. Taken together with estimates of GDP per capita, majority religions explain a minor share of discrepancies between regime types: wealth of nations is more important than majority religion on a general, regime type diversity level. However, specifications of institutional details will have to be made in future research in this new area of historical political-institutional study.
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Rånge, Max, 1975-, et al.
(författare)
-
Windfall Gains or Eco-Innovation? 'Green' Evolution in the Swedish Innovation System
- 2014
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In theory, innovation processes lie behind the evolution of national systems as they create interacting dynamics among organisations. Institutions and policies are considered means for influencing these interactive dynamics, such as shifting innovative focus from traditional to environmentally oriented production, more environmentally friendly types of energy use, or environmental protection measures, products or services. Institutions and policies are thus considered drivers of change in technologies, processes, markets, raw materials or organisational forms--innovation in a Schumpeterian sense. Shifts in energy sources, from fossil to non-fossil sources, among organisations in the Swedish innovation system therefore call for explanations in terms of changed institutions and policies and their resulting eco-innovations. This paper looks more closely into climate gas emission and the shift to non-fossil energy in Sweden; what types of organisations are behind the shift to non-fossil energy use, what are the relative effects on emissions, to what extent can these interactive dynamics be considered eco-innovations, and if so, can they be related to specific institutions and policies? Quantitative analysis of evolving innovation processes in national systems is not always possible due to a lack of reliable and multi-level time-series data sets. This is also true for eco-innovations ('green' innovations). In the Swedish case, there are detailed data sets at national, regional, organisational and employee levels, making possible the estimation of evolutionary models. Register data can be merged with time series on environmental energy consumption and emissions. Data allow for a detailed analysis of environmentally oriented innovation from at least 2003. Analyses in this paper are based on time-series of data on the recent shift from fossil to non-fossil energy sources in the Swedish innovation system, as well as data on emissions, and potentially innovation promoting parameters at organisational and employee levels. Methods are quantitative, and Cox regression is used. Previous investigations of the energy use of Swedish organisations reveal a clear shift from fossil to non-fossil energy use. This is described both in terms of cumulative energy use and effects on emissions of carbon dioxide. Data provide us with information for conclusions on why energy sources change and in interaction with what organisational parameters. For example, wood fuel and solid waste increase as sources of energy while fossil oil has decreased during the years 2003 to 2010. This result is in line with national industrial and environmental policies and presented as institutionally and policy related 'green innovation'. But a quantitative analysis contests such a conclusion and it is noticed that the shift to non-fossil sources of energy has not led to verifiable decreases in green-house gas emissions. Public ownership is the single most important contributor to green innovation in non-fossil energy use. Still, CO2emissions are not fundamentally reduced by this low-tech shift, since they do not affect end-of-pipe reductions. What we observe is in fact wind-fall gains rather than eco-innovations behind the Swedish shift from fossil to non-fossil energy use.
|
|
| 8. |
- Sandberg, Mikael, 1956-
(författare)
-
De "nya" sossarna?
- 2019
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
|
|
| 9. |
|
|
| 10. |
- Sandberg, Mikael, 1956-
(författare)
-
"Hur växer demokratin fram?" : "Dynamisk (evolutionär) komparation och några metodtest på europeiska regimdata"
- 2004
-
Ingår i: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift. - Lund : Fahlbeckska stiftelsen. - 0039-0747. ; 106:4, s. 265-203
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- I denna artikel argumenterar jag mycket kortfattat för en dynamisk jämförelse istället för den inom statsvetenskapen helt dominerande statiska. Eftersom biologin sedan Darwin är pionjärvetenskapen inom området dynamiska jämförelse, samt eftersom viss institutionell teori är i darwinistisk mening evolutionär, görs några inledande försök med tekniker och program från biologin. SPSS har till del tekniker som utnyttjas av biologer, såsom hierarkisk och ickehierarkisk klusteranalys, men den kan inte tillämpas för analys av ”härstamningar” bland demokratiska institutioner, utan snarare bara för klassifikation. Faktoranalys av paneldata ger en ganska klar bild av huvudsakliga utvecklingsstigar men skapar inte kategoriska stigar utan komponenter omkring vilka variabelvärden kretsar med olika närhet. Efter att man fått viss indikation från faktoranalysen på vilka variabler som hör ihop med det undersökta variabelvärdet, kan man därefter också testa dessa variabler med stiganalys i traditionell mening. Testresultaten är lovande, men kräver för sin överlevnad vidare integrerad teori-, metod- och datautveckling.
|
|
