| 1. |
- Johansson, Viktor, 1991, et al.
(författare)
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Value of wind power – Implications from specific power
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 126, s. 352-360
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates the marginal system value of increasing the penetration level of wind power, and how this value is dependent upon the specific power (the ratio of the rated power to the swept area). The marginal system value measures the economic value of increasing the wind power capacity. Green-field power system scenarios, with minimised dispatch and investment costs, are modelled for Year 2050 for four regions in Europe that have different conditions for renewable electricity generation. The results show a high marginal system value of wind turbines at low penetration levels in all four regions and for the three specific powers investigated. The cost-optimal wind power penetration levels are up to 40% in low-wind-speed regions, and up to 80% in high-wind–speed regions. The results also show that both favourable solar conditions and access to hydropower benefit the marginal system value of wind turbines. Furthermore, the profile value, which measures how valuable a wind turbine generation profile is to the electricity system, increases in line with a reduction in the specific power for wind power penetration levels of >10%. The profile value shows that the specific power becomes more important as the wind power penetration level increases. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
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| 2. |
- Odenberger, Mikael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Prospects for CCS in the EU energy roadmap to 2050
- 2013
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Ingår i: Energy Procedia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1876-6102. ; 37, s. 7573-7581
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this paper is to estimate the prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the European electricity supply system taking into account possible forthcoming policy based on the recent EU Energy Roadmap communication, which suggests a 93 to 99% reduction in CO2 emissions relative 1990 levels from the electricity sector by the year 2050. Furthermore, the effect of whether or not onshore storage will be accepted is investigated. The work is based on techno-economic modeling of the European electricity generation sector under different assumptions (scenarios) of the future with respect to electricity demand and fuel prices. The results indicate that the contribution from CCS on a member state level depends on local conditions, e.g., access to local fuels like lignite, and whether or not onshore storage will be allowed. Excluding on-shore storage in aquifers, the modeling results give that CCS is centralized around the North Sea. Natural gas fired conventional power plants is likely to be a serious competitor to coal CCS in the short to medium term providing large emission reduction opportunities by fuel shifting from existing coal power plants to new high efficient gas fired combined cycles. Such development can be a barrier for early deployment of CCS, and hence, result in a delay in commercialization of CCS. The scenarios presented in the Energy Roadmap prescribe power systems almost without net CO2 emissions by 2050, which implies that CCS technologies by the year 2050 must be of a zero-emission type. The modeling presented here indicates in general a large increase in technologies with low CO2 emissions, renewables as well as a significant contribution from CCS technologies, where CCS in the investigated scenarios have the potential to contribute as much as 25-35% of total electricity generation at around year 2050.
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| 3. |
- Cowie, A. L., et al.
(författare)
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Applying a science-based systems perspective to dispel misconceptions about climate effects of forest bioenergy
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology Bioenergy. - : John Wiley and Sons Inc. - 1757-1693 .- 1757-1707. ; 13:8, s. 1210-1231
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The scientific literature contains contrasting findings about the climate effects of forest bioenergy, partly due to the wide diversity of bioenergy systems and associated contexts, but also due to differences in assessment methods. The climate effects of bioenergy must be accurately assessed to inform policy-making, but the complexity of bioenergy systems and associated land, industry and energy systems raises challenges for assessment. We examine misconceptions about climate effects of forest bioenergy and discuss important considerations in assessing these effects and devising measures to incentivize sustainable bioenergy as a component of climate policy. The temporal and spatial system boundary and the reference (counterfactual) scenarios are key methodology choices that strongly influence results. Focussing on carbon balances of individual forest stands and comparing emissions at the point of combustion neglect system-level interactions that influence the climate effects of forest bioenergy. We highlight the need for a systems approach, in assessing options and developing policy for forest bioenergy that: (1) considers the whole life cycle of bioenergy systems, including effects of the associated forest management and harvesting on landscape carbon balances; (2) identifies how forest bioenergy can best be deployed to support energy system transformation required to achieve climate goals; and (3) incentivizes those forest bioenergy systems that augment the mitigation value of the forest sector as a whole. Emphasis on short-term emissions reduction targets can lead to decisions that make medium- to long-term climate goals more difficult to achieve. The most important climate change mitigation measure is the transformation of energy, industry and transport systems so that fossil carbon remains underground. Narrow perspectives obscure the significant role that bioenergy can play by displacing fossil fuels now, and supporting energy system transition. Greater transparency and consistency is needed in greenhouse gas reporting and accounting related to bioenergy.
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| 4. |
- Rootzén, Johan, 1978, et al.
(författare)
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Supply-chain collective action towards zero CO2 emissions in infrastructure construction : Mapping barriers and opportunities
- 2020
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Ingår i: IOP Conference Series. - : IOP Publishing Ltd. ; , s. 042064-
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Successful decarbonisation of the supply chains for buildings and infrastructure, including the production of basic materials, will involve the pursuit - in parallel - of measures to ensure circularity of material flows, measures to improve material efficiency, and to radically reduce CO2 emissions from basic materials production. Emphasis in this work has been on how “intangible” factors such as implicit or explicit constraints within organisations, inadequate communication between actors in the supply chain, overly conservative norms or lack of information, hinder the realisation of the current carbon mitigation potential. Although this work draw primarily from experiences in Sweden and other developed economies we believe the focus on innovations in the policy arena and efforts to develop new ways of co-operating, coordinating and sharing information between actors (SDG17) and on practices and processes that could enable more sustainable resource use in infrastructure construction may be of relevance also elsewhere. Not the least, since there are still many regions of the world where much of the infrastructure to provide basic services remains to be built (SDG6-7, SDG9, SDG11) a challenge that must be handled in parallel with efforts to reduce/erase the climate impact from infrastructure construction (in line with the Paris Agreement and SDG13).
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| 5. |
- Savvidou, Georgia, 1991, et al.
(författare)
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Material Requirements, Circularity Potential and Embodied Emissions Associated with Wind Energy
- 2023
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Ingår i: Sustainable Production and Consumption. - 2352-5509. ; 40, s. 471-487
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wind energy, which is often posited as a key decarbonisation option, represents one of the fastest-growing energy sources globally in recent years. Research on the material requirements for transitioning to a low-carbon electricity system at national levels, as well as research exploring the potential of the electricity system to serve as a source of secondary materials remains underexplored. We address these gaps in the knowledge by analysing the stocks and flows in a wind power system towards 2050 using Sweden as a case study, including the demands for bulk (concrete and steel) and critical materials (neodymium and dysprosium), through a dynamic material flow analysis based on policy-relevant scenarios. We demonstrate that some of the investigated scenarios generate substantial increases in the stocks and flows of bulk and critical materials. We show that, after 2045, the year by which Sweden has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero, the inflows show a decreasing trend while the outflows show an increasing trend, suggesting the beginning of the closing of the material loops, provided untapped circularity potentials transform into actual capacities. For wind power to comply with emissions targets, the steel and concrete production processes will need to be decarbonised at a rate in line with the climate targets. We show that the adoption of mitigation measures to decarbonise the concrete and steel industries aligned with Sweden's climate change mitigation agenda, has the potential to reduce embodied carbon emissions for wind power infrastructure in 2045 from corresponding to around 4 % of current total national emissions in the absence of measures to practically negligible levels. National policies need to focus on promoting the implementation of circularity strategies and decarbonising the entire value chain of the involved materials.
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| 6. |
- Beiron, Johanna, 1992, et al.
(författare)
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A Case Study of the Potential for CCS in Swedish Combined Heat and Power Plants
- 2021
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Ingår i: 15th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference 2021, GHGT 2021.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global need to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions is imminent and might be facilitated by carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Sweden has a goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2045, where negative emissions – and bio-CCS (BECCS) in particular - have been proposed as an important strategy to reach this target at the lowest cost. The Swedish district heating sector constitutes a large potential for BECCS since there is a large number of relatively large biogenic point sources of CO2 in the form of combined heat and power (CHP) plants burning biomass residues from the forest industry. This study provides a multi-level estimation of the impact and potential of CO2 capture and negative emissions in 110 existing Swedish biomass or waste-fired CHP plants, located in 78 local district heating systems. Process models of CHP steam cycles give the impact of absorption-based CCS integration on CHP plant heat and electricity production. The propagation of the plant-level impact to the unit commitment of CHP plants in district heating systems is modelled, and the potential for CO2 capture in each system is estimated. The results indicate that 45-70% of nominal steam cycle district heating generation is retained when integrating carbon capture, depending on the power-to-heat ratio; although the reduced heat output can be moderated by sacrificing electricity generation. In the district heating system context, CCS integration can lead to increased utilization and fuel use of CHP plants, in synergy with increased CO2 capture, but might also lead to greater need for peak heat and/or electricity generation. The total CO2 captured from the 45 CHP plants with modeled CO2 emissions exceeding 150 kton/year could be sufficient to meet a proposed target of 3-10 Mton/year of BECCS by Year 2045.
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| 7. |
- Beiron, Johanna, 1992, et al.
(författare)
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A techno-economic assessment of CO2 capture in biomass and waste-fired combined heat and power plants – A Swedish case study
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. - : Elsevier BV. - 1750-5836. ; 118
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The need to reduce global CO2 emissions is urgent and might be facilitated by carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Sweden has a goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2045. Negative emissions and bio-CCS (BECCS) have been proposed as important strategies to reach this target at the lowest cost. The Swedish district heating sector constitutes a large potential for BECCS, with biogenic point sources of CO2 in the form of combined heat and power (CHP) plants that burn biomass residues from the forest industry. This study analyzes the potential of CO2 capture in 110 existing Swedish biomass or waste-fired CHP plants. Process models of CHP steam cycles give the impacts of absorption-based CCS on heat and electricity production, while a district heating system unit commitment model gives the impact on plant operation and the potential for CO2 capture. The results provide a cost for carbon capture and transport to the nearest harbor by truck: up to 19.3 MtCO2/year could be captured at a cost in the range of 45–125 €/tCO2, corresponding to around 40% of the total fossil fuel-based Swedish CO2 emissions. This would be sufficient to meet a proposed target of 3–10 Mt/year of BECCS by 2045.
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| 8. |
- Beiron, Johanna, 1992, et al.
(författare)
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Progressing from first-of-a-kind to Nth-of-a-kind: Applying learning rates to carbon capture deployment in Sweden
- 2024
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Ingår i: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. - 1750-5836. ; 137
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The deployment of CO2 capture technologies presents opportunities to store fossil fuel emissions from industries and power generation (CCS) and to enable carbon utilization (CCU). However, the costs for early CCS projects are high, and this is a challenge in terms of their economic viability, requiring a strong climate policy with high carbon prices for implementation. This work details a techno-economic assessment of the cost of carbon capture based on a hybrid method and individual project approach, using first-of-a-kind contingency factors and learning rates to study the evolution of carbon capture costs as installed capacity increases over time. The work is based on a case study of 147 Swedish industrial and combined heat and power plants (total of 176 stacks). The results are presented as marginal abatement cost curves, with consideration of early mover CCS projects and learning rates. Deployment scenarios are also presented that take into account an expected increase in the CO2 price. The findings indicate that when accounting for first-of-a-kind contingencies (100 % and 200 % increases in Nth-of-a-kind costs), 90 and 17 projects, respectively, of the total 176 emission sources studied have specific CO2 costs of <300 €/t. However, high learning rates (12 %) can reduce the capture costs from first-of-a-kind to Nth-of-a-kind levels within some 30 project installations (100 % contingency). With lower learning rates (3 %), the first-of-a-kind costs are reduced by 10 %–20 %. With the expected increase in CO2 prices, a peak in carbon capture deployment is observed around Year 2035, at a carbon price of 200 €/t.
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| 9. |
- Biermann, Max, 1989, et al.
(författare)
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Efficient utilization of industrial excess heat for carbon capture and district heating
- 2020
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Carbon capture and storage (CCS) from fossil and biogenic (BECCS) emission sources is necessary to limit global warming to well below 2°C. The EU as well as Swedish national agencies emphasize the importance of CCS for emission intensive industries. However, the cost of implementing CCS is currently still higher than the cost of emitting CO2 via the EU ETS, for example. To incentivize rapid deployment of CCS, the concept of partial capture has been suggested, i.e. capturing only a fraction of the site emissions to reduce capture cost. Several studies have found that the utilization of excess heat from industrial processes could significantly reduce the capture cost as the heat required (~120°C) may be available in significant quantities. However, available excess heat will not be sufficient to power full capture at most industrial sites. In Sweden, many industries utilize all or part of their excess heat in heat recovery units or in combined heat and power (CHP) plants to produce electricity and deliver heat to municipal district heating (MDH) systems. A broad implementation of CCS will, thus, effect the availability of excess heat for industrial heat and power generation. The future product portfolio of industrial processes with excess heat export and CHP plants can therefore be expected to include not only heat and power production, but also climate services (CCS/BECCS) and grid services (frequency regulation due to intermittent renewables). The aim of this work is to assess partial capture at sites that have access to low-value excess heat to power the capture process, whilst considering competition from using the excess heat for MDH delivery. The work is based on process modelling and cost estimation of CO2 capture processes using amine absorption for two illustrative case studies, a refinery and a steel mill, which both currently use excess heat for MDH. The main focus is on investigating how seasonal variations in the availability of excess heat as well as the demand of district heating impact cost-efficient design and operation of partial capture at industrial sites. A challenge when utilizing excess heat in connection to a process connected to a district heating system is that the heat source which can be used to power part of the capture process will exhibit seasonal availability, and thus may inflict extra cost for the CCS plant not running at full load, and therefore may counteract the economic motivation for partial capture. To prevent this, heat integration between CCS and municipal district heating is investigated, for example by utilizing heat from the CO2 compression so that low-pressure steam is released from MDH to provide heat to capture CO2 whilst maintaining MDH supply. The design of the amine absorption capture process will have to handle significant load changes and still maintain high separation efficiency within hydrodynamic boundaries of the absorber and stripper columns. The cost of such operation will depend on the solvent circulation flows, the number of absorber columns (including packing and liquid collectors/distributors) and capacity of solvent buffer tanks for storing unused solvent during the winter season. Assuming that a constant amount of CO2 is avoided, the avoidance cost of CCS based on excess heat with seasonal heat load variations is compared to the avoidance cost of CCS based on the use of external fuel to achieve a constant heat load to the reboiler.
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| 10. |
- Biermann, Max, 1989, et al.
(författare)
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Partial capture from refineries through utilization of existing site energy systems
- 2021
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Ingår i: 15th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference 2021, GHGT 2021. - : Elsevier BV.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many studies indicate that carbon capture and storage operations need to be ramped up in the coming decades to limit global warming to well-below 2°C. Partial CO2 capture from carbon-intensive industrial processes is a promising starting point for initial CO2 transport and storage infrastructure projects, such as the Norwegian full-chain CCS project “Northern Lights”, since specific capture cost (€/t CO2) for single-stack capture can be kept low compared to full capture from all, often less suitable stacks. This work highlights the importance of utilizing existing site energy systems to avoid significant increase in marginal abatement cost when moving from partial to full capture. A systematic and comprehensive techno-economic approach is applied that identifies a mix of heat supply sources with minimum cost based on a detailed analysis of available heat and capacity within the existing site energy system. Time-dependent variations are considered via multi-period, linear optimization. For single-stack capture from the hydrogen production unit (~0.5 Mt CO2 p.a.) of a Swedish refinery in the context of the current energy system, we find avoidance cost for the capture plant (liquefaction, ship transport, and storage excluded)of 42 €/t CO2-avoided that is predominantly driven by steam raised from available process heat in existing coolers (~6 €/t steam). For full capture from all major stacks (~1.4 Mt CO2 p.a.), the avoidance cost becomes twice as high (86 €/t CO2-avoided) due to heat supply from available heat and existing boiler capacity (combustion of natural gas) at costs of ~20€/t steam. The analysis shows that very few investments in new steam capacity are required, and thus, that the utilization of existing site energy systems is important for lowering capture cost significantly, and thus the whole-chain cost for early CCS projects.
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