| 1. |
- Gebremeskel, Dawit, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term electricity supply modelling in the context of developing countries: The OSeMOSYS-LEAP soft-linking approach for Ethiopia
- 2023
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X. ; 45
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Long-term power supply modelling is particularly important for developing countries in providing sustainable solutions to electricity problems. This study presents the first detailed and complete model of the Ethiopian electricity system while considering the unique features (dominance of traditional energy, informal economy, urban-rural divide, low electrification, supply shortage, etc.) and context of developing countries that is developed by soft-linking the OSeMOSYS (Open-Source energy Modelling System) and LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) modelling frameworks. Better system representation and design of plausible scenarios that explore the potential pathways of the future power supply and demand evolution until 2050 is done by performing sensitivity analysis. Sector wise and technological representation of supply and end-uses at a disaggregated level, assessment of centralized grid-based means and decentralized off-grid methods for improving electricity access are the main methodological contributions. Five policy scenarios are employed to explore different possible futures and balance the long-term electricity needs and resources. The improved efficiency scenario reduces the installed capacity by 9 GW which translates into approximately 11% total discounted cost saving (USD $ 4 billion). This economic benefit has made the efficiency scenario the most desirable compared to the other scenarios. Attributed to lower investment costs and abundant resource availability, the results show that renewable technologies are more competitive and favourable.
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| 2. |
- Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha, 1985, et al.
(författare)
-
Electric Vehicle (EV) Transition in Thailand: Is it Beneficial?
- 2018
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Ingår i: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2018 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND UTILITY EXHIBITION ON GREEN ENERGY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (ICUE 2018). - 9789748257990
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The adoption of electric vehicles (EV) is effectively a problem of socio-technical transitions and comes with its complexities. The Thai Energy Efficiency Development Plan includes the adoption of EV as a voluntary measure to increase the energy effectiveness of its transport sector and to mitigate GHG emissions. But, there are other important social, technological, economic and policy factors which need to be thoroughly investigated before the EV transition is attempted in Thailand, since the environmental cost may outweigh the benefits of the EV transition. The methodology used is based on systems thinking and called Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD). In CLD, the factors underpinning the benefits accruing from the EV transition in Thailand are characterized as causal relationships and feedback loops. Preliminary CLD investigation into the factors for EVs show the technological factor EV efficiency levels and their cost (economic factor) are important in determining the GHG reduction benefit, along with the grid emission factor.
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| 3. |
- Gebremeskel, Dawit, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of Resource Adequacy in Power Sector Reforms of Ethiopia
- 2019
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Ingår i: IEEE PES/IAS PowerAfrica Conference: Power Economics and Energy Innovation in Africa, PowerAfrica 2019. ; , s. 81-86
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recently, the government of Ethiopia has been shaking up the power industry by introducing reforms with the hope of increasing electricity access, ensuring resource adequacy, stimulating private investment and guaranteeing financial sustainability of the sector. Restructuring of utility, liberalizing energy market, tariff revision, targeting universal access, and export market are some of the sea changes undertaken by the government. The expected return from these reforms is very high, sometimes to a level that it looks too good to be true. The study thus evaluates the effectiveness of the reforms by assessing the future generation adequacy in contrast to the growing electricity demand. An analytical method to calculate resource planning indices such as reserve margin and expected unserved energy is used. The results show that the Ethiopian power system will face about 10 TWh energy shortage in the near-future. The study begins by providing an overview of the power sector and the recent reform activities with their intentions and goals. The result of the study could be important as input for making policy-Adjustments and/or revamping implementation strategies.
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| 4. |
- Gebremeskel, Dawit, et al.
(författare)
-
Long-term evolution of energy and electricity demand forecasting: The case of Ethiopia
- 2021
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X. ; 36
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Long-term energy demand forecasting is crucial for any country, in particular for developing countries with rapid developments of energy needs. This study focuses on Ethiopia, a country with a highly increasing energy demand resulting mainly from the currently low share of electricity access, rapid development of industrial parks, extensive expansion of the railway network, extensive irrigation schemes for agriculture, new cement and sugar factories, housing projects, power export plan to neighboring countries, etc. These all are on top of the 2.7% average population growth. In this study, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used to explore different possible futures and also to forecast the long-term energy requirements in Ethiopia. The planning period is 33 years from 2018 to 2050. The study employs six different scenarios to unfold the future evolution. The developed scenarios are Business-As-Usual (BAU), Growth in Electrification and Urbanization (E&U), High Economic Growth (HEG) and three policy-driven, Improved Energy Efficiency (IEE-1, IEE-2 and IEE-3) scenarios. The pathways represented by these scenarios can show the maximum expected rise in demand under different drivers and the best-case energy saving opportunities. The model is also used to estimate the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
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| 5. |
- Hagos, Dejene Assefa, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring cost-effective transitions to fossil independent transportation in the future energy system of Denmark
- 2020
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Ingår i: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-9118 .- 0306-2619. ; 261
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, in the light of national targets of a fossil independent future Danish energy system, cost-effective deep decarbonisation solutions in transportation have been explored under base-, alternative technical-, and policy scenarios in the TIMES modelling environment. The TIMES-DK model was further developed to concurrently represent all emerging transport technologies (ETTs) in road- and off-road transport applications, disaggregated transport technologies and service demands segmentation to capture consumers preferences and heterogeneity, and to endogenise fuel infrastructures. The model runs optimise the societal surplus in between 2010 and 2050. There is a particular focus on the role of gas in transport. The results reveal that in between 2020 and 2040, natural gas (NG) could cost-efficiently serve as a transition fuel. Decarbonisation pace and fuel infrastructure assumptions were found to have a large impact on the NG adoption levels. This study showed that the combined use of liquid biofuels (mainly biomethanol), upgraded biogas, electricity, and hydrogen fuels would deliver cost-effective deep decarbonisation by 2050; however, their various decarbonisation roles vary within and across transport segments. Depending on the decarbonisation pace, a marginal CO2 abatement cost of 419–549 €/ton (or 1–1.29 €/L gasoline) is required by 2050 in Denmark. The results also showed that 25% and 30% cost reductions of BEVs and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs), compared to our central cost assumptions, would increase their respective adoption by 36% and 66% towards 2050. They show high market shares particularly in the medium size segment than in the small and large segments. Competition for limited biomass resources coupled with higher fuel demand results in adoption of ETTs.
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| 6. |
- Kulindwa, Yusuph J., et al.
(författare)
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Households and tree-planting for wood energy production – Do perceptions matter?
- 2021
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Ingår i: Forest Policy and Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1389-9341. ; 130
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While forests are a primary source of energy for the majority of Tanzanian households, the forest cover is rapidly declining. The Tanzanian government has introduced a tree-planting campaign strategy, aimed at reducing pressure on natural forests. However, the campaign appears not to have contributed significantly to the forest recovery rate. Thus, this study aims at examining household perceptions of tree-planting for wood energy production for both in-house uses and for sale, and identify the factors influencing household perceptions of tree-planting. We employed the multinomial logit model to analyse the factors influencing household perceptions of tree-planting for energy. Our findings indicate that respondents considered the right/freedom to harvest trees from farms and transport them to markets as the most important factor (86%), followed by lack of awareness of tree-planting programmes (72%), and the existence of fuelwood for free from natural forests (59%). The size of the farm, education, distance to forest reserves, and age of the household head are found to have significant impact on the household perceptions of tree-planting for energy. Our results further show that woodfuel harvesting and enforcement systems do not exist in nearby forests. This situation is exacerbated by the absence of a specific policy formulated to match with the daily demand of forest produce for energy and income of households near forest reserves. Thus, we suggest policy makers to target policies and actions promoting tree-planting for energy.
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| 7. |
- Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Determining the factors of household energy transitions: A multi-domain study
- 2019
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Ingår i: Technology in Society. - : Elsevier BV. - 0160-791X. ; 57, s. 54-75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy transitions at the household level are important because there are so many households, and motives and barriers to these transitions processes are not well understood. The objective of this paper is to investigate explanatory variables of household energy transitions. We select papers investigating explanatory variables underpinning household energy transitions in three domains: adoption of solar photovoltaics (PV) in households, adoption/transition to sustainable residential heating systems (RHS) and adoption/transition to alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). In all three domains the chosen literature employ a wide variety of quantitative analyses such as discrete choice models ranging from multinomial logit models and principal component analysis to qualitative assessment of the answers through inductive analysis. The explanatory variables are categorized in six superordinate explanatory variable categories of economic factors, environmental factors, personal preferences and values, social factors, household characteristics and market and policy factors. In total we identify 31 explanatory variables which have been investigated in the 38 articles chosen, falling under the six categories. Investment cost is an important explanatory variable for all three domains, but a policy variable such as government subsidy could mitigate the former explanatory variable. We propose a conceptual framework as an initial step towards understanding the interactions and impacts of the explanatory variables with each other.
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| 8. |
- Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of social innovation on local energy transitions: Diffusion of solar PV and alternative fuel vehicles in Sweden
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Transitions. - : Elsevier BV. - 2589-7918. ; 2, s. 98-115
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Local energy transitions are gaining widespread attention through their contribution to sustainability, notably to climate change mitigation. Social innovation (SI) in local energy transitions have been scrutinized in multiple works, but the impact of SI on the local energy transitions is an under-studied field. The objective of this study is to put forward a method to model SI in local energy transitions. This is done using System Dynamics modelling (SDM) of the local energy transitions processes. The SDM method is to study a broad spectrum of socio-techno-natural phenomena, generally. In this study, SDM is used to capture the endogenous factors which underpin the transition processes. This study is based on two cases: solar photovoltaics (PV) diffusion in Skåne, and transition to alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) in Dalsland, Sweden. The transitions are modelled with the municipality actors providing input. Two simulation runs of the local transitions are executed, namely the Base run and No SI run. The Base run has the municipality actors’ co-creation actions. Results show that the co-creation actions induce a significant increase in the diffusion of electric vehicles in Dalsland and higher diffusion of solar PV in Skåne. The main outcome of this study is a model to assess the possible impacts of SI on local energy transitions. Ultimately, we hope to contribute to methods of quantitatively assessing the impact of SI in local energy transitions.
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| 9. |
- Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Review of the use of system dynamics (SD) in scrutinizing local energy transitions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Academic Press. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 272
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Local energy transition processes are complex socio-technical transitions requiring careful study. The use of System Dynamics (SD) in modelling and analyzing local energy transitions is especially suitable given the characteristics of SD. Our aim is to systematically categorize the different ways SD is used and useful to scrutinize local energy transitions, and to see if we can discern any common themes that can be useful to researchers looking to scrutinize local energy transitions, using SD. The study is exploratory in nature, with peer-reviewed journal and conference articles analyzed using content analysis. The six categories on which the articles are analyzed are: the sector the article studies; the transition that is studied in the article; the modelling depth in the article; the objective of the article; the justification for using SD provided in the article and the levels of interaction with ‘local’. Our findings show most of the local energy transitions have been studied using simulatable Stock and Flow Diagrams in SD methodology. The important sectors in the energy field are represented in terms of SD modelling of local energy transitions, including electricity, transport, district heating etc. Most of the local energy transitions scrutinized by SD in the articles have descriptive objectives, with some prescriptive, and just one evaluative objective. In terms of justification for using SD provided by the articles analyzed in this study, we found four major themes along which the justifications that were provided. They are dynamics, feedbacks, delays and complexity, systematic thinking, bridging disciplines and actor interactions and behaviour. The ‘dynamics, feedbacks, delays and complexity’ theme is the most cited justification for the use of SD in scrutinizing local energy transitions, followed by systematic thinking.
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| 10. |
- Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha, 1985, et al.
(författare)
-
Understanding social innovation in local energy transitions processes: A multi-case study
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Transitions. - : Elsevier BV. - 2589-7918. ; 3, s. 1-12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Social innovation (SI) in local energy transitions is gaining focus in current times but energy transitions have not yet been explicitly analysed in the context of SI. Our objective is to characterize SI in co-created local energy transitions processes through the study of three distinct cases based on energy transitions in localities in Sweden (Skåne and Dalsland) and Denmark (Hjørring). In these localities, municipality actors (MA) are engaged in increasing the adoption of solar PV systems, uptake of EV and biogas cars, and phasing out oil-burners, respectively. We analyse the three cases by following the work of the MAs and through the frame of Transformative Social Innovation (TSI), which consists of four shades; social innovation, system innovation, game-changers, and narratives of change. Subsequently, we use causal loop diagrams to characterize the SI in the oil-burner phase-out case. We see shades of SI and system innovation but there are no ‘game changers’ or ‘narratives of change’ yet in any of the cases.
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