1.
Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
A supply-driven forecast for the future global coal production
2008
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt) abstract
Several countries have already reached a maximum of coal production and are in decline, for instance Germany, The UK and Japan. A vast majority of the world’s coal reserves are located within six countries, the Big Six, which control around 85% of the world’s coal. None of these countries has yet reached maximum coal production and when they do they will consequently have a large impact on the global coal production. The global coal production is forecasted by using a logistic growth model and experience from historical reserve and resource assessments. A maximum production will be reached by 2030. Comparisons are made with other forecasts and the emission scenarios for climate change.
2.
Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
Development journey and outlook of Chinese giant oilfields
2010
Ingår i: Petroleum Exploration and Development. - : Elsevier. - 1876-3804. ; 37:2, s. 237-249
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Over 70% of China’s domestic oil production is obtained from nine giant oilfields. Understanding the behaviour of these fields is essential to both domestic oil production and future Chinese oil imports. This study utilizes decline curves and depletion rate analysis to create some future production outlooks for the Chinese giants. Based on our study, we can only conclude that China’s future domestic oil production faces a significant challenge caused by maturing and declining giant fields. Evidence also indicates that the extensive use of water flooding and enhanced oil recovery methods may be masking increasing scarcity and may result in even steeper future decline rates than the ones currently being seen. Our results suggest that a considerable drop in oil production from the Chinese giants can be expected over the next decades.
3.
Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
Future Danish oil and gas export
2009
Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 34:11, s. 1826-1834
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Denmark possesses only a small share of the exploitation rights to North Sea oil and is a minor producer when compared to Norway and the UK. However, Denmark is still an oil exporter and a very important supplier of oil for certain countries, in particular Sweden. A field-by-field analysis of the Danish oil and gas fields, combined with estimated production contribution from new field developments, enhanced oil recovery and undiscovered fields, provides a future production outlook. The conclusion from this analysis is that by 2030 Denmark will no longer be an oil or gas exporter at all. Our results are also in agreement with the Danish Energy Authority’s own forecast, and may be seen as an independent confirmation of their general statements. Decreasing Danish oil production, coupled with a rapid decline in Norway’s oil output, will force Sweden to import oil from more distant markets in the future, dramatically reducing Swedish energy security. If no new gas suppliers are introduced to the Swedish grid, then Swedish gas consumption is clearly predestined to crumble alongside declining Danish production. Future hydrocarbon production from Denmark displays a clear link to Sweden’s future energy security.
4.
Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model
2010
Ingår i: Fuel. - : Elsevier BV. - 0016-2361 .- 1873-7153. ; 89:11, s. 3546-3558
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
A small number of nations control the vast majority of the world’s coal reserves. The geologically available amounts of coal are vast, but geological availability is not enough to ensure future production since economics and restrictions also play an important role. Historical trends in reserve and resource assessments can provide some insight about future coal supply and provide reasonable limits for modelling. This study uses a logistic model to create long-term outlooks for global coal production. A global peak in coal production can be expected between 2020 and 2050, depending on estimates of recoverable volumes. This is also compared with other forecasts. The overall conclusion is that the global coal production could reach a maximum level much sooner than most observers expect.
5.
Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook
2009
Ingår i: International Journal of Coal Geology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0166-5162 .- 1872-7840. ; 78:3, s. 201-216
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
The United States has a vast supply of coal, with almost 30% of world reserves and more than 1600 Gt (short) as remaining coal resources. The US is also the world’s second largest coal producer after China and annually produces more than twice as much coal as India, the third largest producer. The reserves are concentrated in a few states, giving them a major influence on future production. Historically many states have also shown a dramatic reduction in recoverable coal volumes and this has been closely investigated. Current recoverable estimates may also be too high, especially if further restrictions are imposed. The average calorific value of US coals has decreased from 29.2 MJ/kg in 1950 to 23.6 MJ/kg in 2007 as U.S. production moved to subbituminous western coals. This has also been examined in more detail. This study also uses established analysis methods from oil and gas production forecasting, such as Hubbert linearization and logistic curves, to create some possible future outlooks for U.S. coal production. In one case, the production stabilizes at 1400 Mt annually and remains there until the end of the century, provided that Montana dramatically increases coal output. The second case, which ignores mining restrictions, forecasts a maximum production of 2500 Mt annually by the end of the century.
6.
Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks
2009
Ingår i: Twenty Sixth Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference. - Pittsburgh : University of Pittsburgh.
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat) abstract
The geological coal resource of the U.S. is abundant and proved coal reserves are listed as the world’s largest. However, the reserves are unevenly distributed and located in a small number of states, giving them major influence over future production. A long history of coal mining provides detailed time series of production and reserve estimates, which can be used to identify historical trends. Compilation of data from United States Geological Survey, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Bureau of Mines and others reveal how the recoverable volumes have been decreased since before the 1950s. The exact cause of this reduction is probably a multitude of factors, including depletion, changes in economic conditions, land-use restrictions, environmental protection and social acceptance. In reviewing the historical evolution of coal reserves, one can state that the trend here does not point towards any major increases in available recoverable reserves; rather the opposite is true due to restrictions and increased focus on environmental impacts from coal extraction. The development of new even stricter regulations and environmental laws is also a reasonable assumption and this will further limit the amount of recoverable coal. Future coal production will not be entirely determined by what is geologically available, but rather by the fraction of that amount that is practically recoverable. Consequently, the historical trend towards reduced recoverable amounts is likely to continue into the future, with even stricter regulations imposed by increased environmental concern. Long-term outlooks can be created in many ways, but ultimately the production must be limited by recoverable volumes since coal is a finite resource. Various models, such as the logistic, Hubbert or Gompertz curves, can be used to provide reasonable long-term outlooks for future production. However, such long-term life-cycle projections should not be used as a substitute for meticulous economic studies to forecast perturbations in coal production over the next few years or decades. Based on a logistic model, using the recoverable reserves as an estimate of what is realistically available for production, results in a coal output of around 1400 Mt by 2030 through the rest of the century. The geologic amounts of coal are of much less importance to future production than the practically recoverable volumes. The geological coal supply might be vast, but the important question is how large the share that can be extracted under present restrictions are and how those restrictions will develop in the future. Production limitations might therefore appear much sooner than previously expected.
7.
Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks
2010
Ingår i: Natural Resources Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1520-7439 .- 1573-8981. ; 19:3, s. 189-208
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
The geological coal resource of the U.S. is abundant and proved coal reserves are listed as the world’s largest. However, the reserves are unevenly distributed and located in a small number of states, giving them major influence over future production. A long history of coal mining provides detailed time series of production and reserve estimates, which can be used to identify historical trends. In reviewing the historical evolution of coal reserves, one can state that the trend here does not point towards any major increases in available recoverable reserves; rather the opposite is true due to restrictions and increased focus on environmental impacts from coal extraction. Future coal production will not be entirely determined by what is geologically available, but rather by the fraction of that amount that is practically recoverable. Consequently, the historical trend towards reduced recoverable amounts is likely to continue into the future, with even stricter regulations imposed by increased environmental concern. Long-term outlooks can be created in many ways, but ultimately the production must be limited by recoverable volumes since coal is a finite resource. The geologic amounts of coal are of much less importance to future production than the practically recoverable volumes. The geological coal supply might be vast, but the important question is how large the share that can be extracted under present restrictions are and how those restrictions will develop in the future. Production limitations might therefore appear much sooner than previously expected.
