Effektutvärdering avkilometerskatt för tunga fordon : en omvärldsstudie

• Over the last 15 years, distance-based road user charging schemes have been designed and deployed across the European Union. At least 10 EU countries today calculate, charge and collect fares for the use of road infrastructure following a differential model supported by positioning, communication, and other related technologies such as ANPR. As future road charging schemes are being developed, existing systems, although aimed at varying goals, will play a critical role in passing along their experiences to positively influence the development of future road charging schemes. This report set a high ambition to study the evaluation landscape in the domain of distance-based road user charging. Given the current efforts within the ARENA knowledge platform targeted toward the development of an evaluation methodology for a possible distance-based road user charging scheme in Sweden, the report was aimed at laying a solid foundation to ensure that the development of the methodology should as much as possible build on real world experiences. To that effect, 15 systems are identified and analysed, including two congestion-charging schemes (Gothenburg and Stockholm) and 13 distance-based charging schemes in Europe andother parts of the world. The predominantly literature review-based analysis aim to isolate the goals behind these different schemes, if and how the scheme was evaluated, including the questions that were raised in the evaluation, evaluation phases that were covered, the methods that were employed in collecting evaluation data, and analysing the data for possible effects. More important, the analysis aimed at understanding what proven effects were uncovered, as well as the lessons learned from the evaluation process. In order to perform an analysis, the above goals were disaggregated into concrete questions, e.g., for each specific system, what was the evaluation method employed. Secondary data was then collected mainly through Internet search within transport relevant databases. A number of criteria were consistently applied in filtering the secondary data sources, e.g., source quality. The analysis focused on determining if each evaluation report had a clear evaluation goal, motivation for choices of methods, based on real or synthetic data, and if there were clearly demonstrated effects that can be considered to be significant.The work in this study turned out to expose an unfortunate serious deficiency in evaluation material from existing distance-basedroad user charging schemes both from an ex-ante, and even more-so, from an ex-post perspective. Of the 15 systems identified (with the exception of the Gothenburg and Stockholm cases), only six had any material on evaluation, with half addressing an overall system perspective and the rest addressing some aspects of the system. Moreover, only one report actually conducted and related both ex-ante and ex-post perspectives (Switzerland) while most studies were limited to ex-ante.Overall, the analysis suggests that fiscal and environmental measures predominates the goal behind several distance-based road user charging schemes while traffic management and modal shift are on the opposite end. Results from evaluation of congestion schemes in Stockholm and Gothenburg, suggests significant reductions were observed in the overall traffic volume, although disproportionately between passenger cars and heavy vehicles. Results from distance-based road user charging schemes discussed in this report suggests the increasein transport costs to be consistent across different schemes, e.g., 5% to 7% in Germany. 4While this may be a fact, it is difficult to separate how much of it may be a result of speculation that in turn drives up prices and cost compared to real costs as aresult of the scheme. This is because distance-based charging schemes also benefits for transport organizations where they are implemented, e.g., when schemes provide subsidies for environmentally clean fleet such as in Germany and the Czech Republic, or when competition with foreign vehicles is normalized or when traffic adjustments results in reduced travel times as in Stockholm. Therefore, without hard facts it can be difficult to fully explain the net increase in transport costs as a consequence of distance-based road user charging.Expectations based on existing work are that as transport cost increases, so too will the shares in rail traffic and the income for infrastructure financing. Also, traffic volumes, empty runs, vehicle-km, and emissions, all turn to decrease due to the implementation of a distance-based road charging scheme. Schemes that account for the Euro class differentiations are seen to significantly alter that fleet demographics but no clear trends were reported. Most of the evaluation reports analysed lacked documentation on evaluation data which made it difficult to ascertain the quality of established impacts. This is not just a cost issue but also exposes a limitation in the entire evaluation methodology framework employed.A centralchallenge in conducting impact evaluation is to isolate specific effects within a system that can be associated specifically to distance-based road user charging. This is because such effects are often the results of several interdependent elements with versatile and far-reaching consequences all changing during the evaluation period. Based on the information analysed in this study, it can be recommended to consider as many indicators as possible when addressing impact evaluation for distance-based road user charging in Sweden. Such indicators should then provide a basis for collecting statistically representative data that span across several domains. We believe that it is better to have data about several indicators, even though such indicators may overlap, compared to having data about few indicators. A true representative sample should identify geographic areas of interest, vehicle categories of interest, as well as specific industries such as the forest industry. The sample should also cover a longer time period to emphasize the time variability of the data. The impacts and benefits of distance-based road user charging in Sweden can be amplified if; the control system design, ex-ante evaluation, and ex-post evaluation are all addressed simultaneously as these elements can significantly affect each other.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering (hsv//eng)

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