A stochastic approach for modeling residential interruption costs

• In power system planning and operation, accurate assessment of reliability worth is essential for making informed decisions. The accuracy of the reliability worth estimation is directly affected by the interruption cost model used in the analysis. Residential interruption costs vary with season, day of week and time of day, and can be difficult to handle because of their intangible characteristics. This paper develops a cost model for residential customers that includes the timing of the outage by modeling the underlying factors that give rise to the temporal variations in residential interruption costs. By considering the stochastic nature of the underlying factors, as for example outdoor temperature, the proposed model makes it possible to estimate the costs for an event that is extreme in other senses than having a long duration. Time sequential Monte Carlo simulations were applied to a test system in order to assess reliability worth. The results show that the commonly used customer damage function overestimates the reliability worth. By accounting for the timing of the outages a more realistic estimation of the interruption costs can be obtained.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Annan teknik -- Övrig annan teknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Other Engineering and Technologies -- Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified (hsv//eng)

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Elektroteknik och elektronik -- Reglerteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering -- Control Engineering (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Distribution system

Power system reliability

Residential interruption costs

Sequential simulation

Cost estimating

Costs

Housing

Intelligent systems

Monte Carlo methods

Outages

Reliability

Reliability analysis

Stochastic models

Stochastic systems

Customer damage functions

Distribution systems

Intangible characteristics

Interruption costs

Power system planning and operation

Time sequential Monte Carlo Simulation

Cost benefit analysis

Publikations- och innehållstyp

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