A dynamic discrete choice activitybased travel demand model

• During the last decades, many activity-based models have been developed in the literature. However, especially in random utility based models timing decisions are often treated poorly or inconsistently with other choice dimensions. In this paper we show how dynamic discrete choice can be used to overcome this problem. In the proposed model, trip decisions are made sequentially in time, starting at home in the morning and ending at home in the evening. At each decision stage, the utility of an alternative is the sum of the one-stage utility of the action and the expected future utility in the reached state.The model generates full daily activity schedules with any number of trips that each is a combination of one of 6 activities, 1240 locations and 4 modes. The ability to go from all to all locations makes evaluating the model very time consuming and sampling of alternatives were therefore used for estimation. The model is estimated on travel diaries and simulation results indicates that it is able to reproduce timing decisions, trip lengths and distribution of the number trips within sample.To explain when people perform different activities, two sets of parameters are used: firstly, the utility of being at home varies depending on the time of day; and secondly, constants determine the utility of arriving to work at specific times. This was enough to also obtain a good distribution of the starting times for free-time activities.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Transportteknik och logistik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Transport Systems and Logistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Travel demand

Activity based model

dynamic discrete choice model

Transportvetenskap

Transport Science

Publikations- och innehållstyp

vet (ämneskategori)

ovr (ämneskategori)