A joint between-day and within-day activity based travel demand with forward looking individuals

• Including day-to-day planning to account for systematic variability in activity participation has the potential to further improve travel demand models. This paper introduce a dynamic discrete choice model of day-to-day and within-day planning in a joint framework. No model up to date jointly treats within-day and day-to-day planning with individuals that take future days into account. The model is estimated using a combination of a small survey with week long data and a larger single day travel survey. A static, myopic and forward looking version of the model is estimated. There is a big improvement in model fit when moving from a static to a dynamic model, but allowing forward-looking behaviour gives a relatively small additional improvement. As a policy test, grocery stores are closed on Sundays. The myopic model predicts that people as a consequence will shop more on Mondays-Thursdays and therefore unintuitively also less on Saturdays. The forward looking model also predicts increased shopping on weekdays but mainly that people will shop more on Saturdays anticipating that stores are closed on Sundays.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Transportteknik och logistik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Transport Systems and Logistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Transportvetenskap

Transport Science

Publikations- och innehållstyp

vet (ämneskategori)

ovr (ämneskategori)