Low-carbon futures for a Swedish society beyond GDP growth

• This paper describes how different backcasting scenarios for developments beyond traditional GDP growth 2050,  in Sweden may fulfill a climate goal corresponding to keeping global warming to a maximum 1.5 degrees with 50% likelihood. This corresponds to  a 92% decrease of GHG emissions from Swedish consumption from today’s level. The four scenarios illustrate different strategies: 1) collaborative economy, 2) local self-sufficiency, 3) automation for quality of life and 4) circular economy in the welfare state. The aim is to further precise and quantify the scenario narratives with a focus on GHG emissions occurring as a result of Swedish consumption, both private and public. Preliminary results show that, as we assume that Sweden is fossil-free 2050, particular areas of attention are diets, air travel, emission intensities in other countries and the level of imports.. Potential implications for other environmental goals are discussed.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Climate

backcasting scenarios

consumption-based emissions

assessment

Planering och beslutsanalys

Planning and Decision Analysis

Publikations- och innehållstyp

vet (ämneskategori)

ovr (ämneskategori)