Requirements toward the freight system of 2030/2050 : Capacity4Rail Deliverable 21.2, EC Contract No FP7- 605650

• The total demand for freight in Europe has increased rapidly in recent decades, but rail freight has lost market share and most of the increase has been handled by trucks. In the last decade, rail markets share has increased in some countries because of deregulation, investments in rail and truck fees, but is still very low in many countries. In the new member states the markets have decreased rapidly when rail monopoly has been taken away.Rail deregulation has not been implemented in practice in all countries while at the same time truck deregulation has been implemented fully and resulted in a low-cost truck market. Moreover, the cost of external effects has not yet been implemented. Most forecasts show an increase of 60% in total freight demand by 2050 and an approximately constant market share with a business-as-usual scenario. To fulfil the targets in the EU white paper, it is necessary to roughly double rails’ market share from 18% in 2011 to at least 36% in 2050. This means that the tonne-kilometres will be 3.6 times as much as today and 2.4 times as much as in a business-as-usual scenario in 2050.To reach the white paper target, it is necessary to both increase quality and capacity and lower the cost of rail freight. The customers must be able to trust the delivery time to meet the requirements of their logistic chain and the cost must be competitive with road freight. A system approach is therefore needed and the critical development lines must be identified. From the customer’s transportation needs that put demands on the wagons – the wagons are coupled together into trains where available tractive power is taken into account – the train utilises the infrastructure with a certain performance along a link and ultimately in a network from origin to destination.Much of today’s freight train system and infrastructure is based on an old standard 3-4 MW locomotive that means trains of approximately 1,500 gross tonnes and a train length of 650-750 metres. But modern locomotives have a tractive power of 5-6 MW capable of hauling 2,000-2,500 tonne trains of up to 1,000m in length. In Europe, train lengths up to 850m already exist and experiments have been made with 2x750m=1,500m long trains with radio-controlled locomotives in the middle of the train. Not only the tractive power but also the locomotives’ axle load is critical for optimal traction. To increase the axle load from normally around 20 tonnes to 22.5 or for heavy haul, 25-30 tonnes is a possibility to operate heavier trains combined with track-friendly bogies.Concerning the wagons, one important question is whether development will be incremental, as it has been so far, or if it is possible to make a system change. An incremental change means successively higher axle loads, wider gauge, better length-utilization in a given train length, higher payload and less tare weight per wagon, more silent brake-blocks, end of train devices and some electronic sensors. A system change will include electro-pneumatic brakes, disc-brakes, full electronic control of the wagons and load and automatic central couplers. The automatic couplers is the most critical component but important not only because it will make shunting and marshalling safer and cheaper but also because it will make it possible to operate longer trains without problems and introduce electronic braking systems and control and to feed the train with electricity.Today, most rail operators use electric locos for long haul and diesel locos for feeder transport and terminal shunting. But the duo-loco has now been introduced into the markets, equipped with both normal electric traction and diesel traction, either for shunting or for line haul. This means that a duo-loco can shunt the wagons itself at a marshalling yard or stop at an un-electrified siding at an industry and change wagons directly. The operators thus need only one loco instead of two and it will also make it possible to introduce new operation principles and change wagons along the line. It will also decrease vulnerability in case of current interruptions. In the long term, it will also make it possible to avoid catenaries at marshalling yards and sidings, which will save money for the IM.Also for intermodal it is an advantage to introduce liner trains. If the terminals are located on an electrified side track where the train can drive straight in and out onto the line again, there is no need for a diesel loco to be switched in. This in turn requires a horizontal transfer technology that can function under the overhead contact wires. The train must be able to be loaded and unloaded during a stop of 15-30 minutes. This also obviates the need to park wagons. The terminals can also be made more compact and require less space. This will reduce the costs which is critical for intermodal.Most trailers today are not designed to be lifted onto a railway wagon. The trailer market is in practice therefore very limited even at conventional intermodal terminals that have lifting equipment. Solutions where trailers do not need to be lifted but can be rolled on and off along a ramp can thus widen the market considerably. They also mean that simple terminals only need to be dimensioned for the trucks’ axle load.To increase the capacity of the rail system, the following measures can be taken: (1) More efficient timetable planning: On double track: Bundling of trains with the same average speed in timetable channels to harmonize speeds. During the day faster freight trains are an option. (2) Use of trains and vehicles with higher capacity: For freight: Longer trains, higher and wider gauge, higher axle load and metre load. For passenger trains: Double-decker and wide-body trains. (3) Differentiation of track access charges to avoid peak hours and overloaded links. (4) Better signalling system, shorter block lengths and in the long term introduction of ERTMS level 3. (5) Adaptation of freight corridors for long and heavy freight trains. (6). Investment in HSR to increase capacity for freight trains and regional trains on the conventional network and in some cases dedicated freight railways.Two targets in the EU white paper at 2011 were that 30% of road freight over 300 km should shift to other modes such as rail or waterborne transport by 2030, and to triple the length of the existing high-speed rail network by 2030. For high speed rail the target seems to be achievable. The actual development of freight is not in line with the target and at present there are no indications that it will be fulfilled. The planned Rail Freight Corridors (RFC) are promising but there is no common plan to increase the standard in the RFC, which would be desirable. With the measures listed above, longer and heavier trains will make it possible to roughly double the capacity for freight trains without building new railways and in the long term with ERTMS level 3 even more.It is possible to reduce GHG emissions for all modes but rail will still be the most efficient mode by 2050. An estimation of the effects of a mode shift to rail transport applying the world’s ‘best practice’ shows that such a mode shift to rail can reduce EU transport GHG emissions over land by about 20 %, compared with a baseline scenario. In combination with low-carbon electricity production a reduction of about 30% may be achieved. A developed rail system can thus substantially contribute to the EU target of reducing GHG emissions in the transport sector by 60% compared to 1990 levels. To enable such a mode shift and to manage the demand for capacity, there is a need for investment. This will also maintain and increase mobility for passengers and freight.

Nyckelord

Transports

Freight

Railway

Capacity

Markets

Forecasts

2030

2050

Transportsystem

Transport Systems

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