Weather Event Preparedness Modelling for Distribution Systems

• Distribution level outages generally affect fewer customers than regional or transmission level outages. However, as global temperatures continue to rise, the radial topology and overhead lines typical at this level make it particularly vulnerable to High Impact Low Probability weather events. A Machine Learning model is therefore proposed that uses Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) to predict the likelihood of an outage given the weather conditions and the composition of the Distribution System Operator (DSO). The model is tuned by using a traditional binary classification problem as ground truth, but is evaluated based on its probability distributions near outage events. Results show a greater classification confidence for true outages than false outages as well as a probability distribution that is skewed towards actual outage events.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Forecasting

Power outages

Regression analysis

Resilience

Resilient systems

Risk analysis

Weather

Publikations- och innehållstyp

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