Are future renewable energy targets consistent with current planning perspectives?

• Local examples of how renewable energy targets can be fulfilled in the transport sector without compromising individualmobility will be critical as we approach peak-oil and tougher emission caps in the future. Globally, frontier cities that demonstratebest practice solutions might have an advantage when the situation becomes more acute and the urge for disseminatingknow-how between cities increases. The issue is complex, since sustainable traffic planning and renewable energy supplyneed to encompass a multi-stakeholder process, involving potential shifts in individual travel behavior, the development offuture vehicle technologies, and requirements on more efficient energy supply chains. One prediction can be made: the transitionto a non-carbon society will place immense pressure on the limited, solar, wind and bio energy assets.One attempt to create a local sustainable city district with zero net contribution to fossil fuel emissions is the ‘StockholmRoyal Seaport’ (SRS) in Sweden. Here, many of the key elements of a sustainable transport system are beingplanned for, such as optimum public transport provision, optimal biking/walking conditions, condensed city planningwith a mixture of dwellings and office buildings equipped with virtual meeting technologies. Given this assumed‘ideal’ situation for a sustainable transport system and the long-term target of 100% renewable energy use by 2030, thisstudy analyzes the questions: ‘Is this target within reach, assuming various levels of more sustainable travel patterns?’and if not, ‘What else is needed in order to meet target fulfilment?”The analysis, which is based on a combined forecasting/backcasting approach, comes to the conclusion that eventhough the SRS district in many respects could be regarded as ‘ideal’ for target fulfilment and bio-fuel assets in Swedenare favourable, feasible strategies to actually meet the requirements for a non-fossil energy supply are lackingunless the limits on the proportion of renewable energy assets allocated to transport are exceeded. These conclusionswill hopefully work as an eye-opener on current planning perspectives and feed the discussion on how to guide developmenttowards meeting the unavoidable renewable energy targets that must be fulfilled.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Maskinteknik -- Energiteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Mechanical Engineering -- Energy Engineering (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

renewable

energy

target

backcasting forecasting

sustainable

planning

bio-fuel

travel behavior

Publikations- och innehållstyp

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