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Assessing intrastat...
Assessing intrastate shipments from interstate data and expert opinion
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- Brommesson, Peter (author)
- Linköpings universitet,Teoretisk Biologi,Tekniska fakulteten
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- Sellman, Stefan (author)
- Linköpings universitet,Teoretisk Biologi,Tekniska fakulteten
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- Beck-Johnson, Lindsay (author)
- Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA
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- Hallman, Clayton (author)
- Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA
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- Murrieta, Deedra (author)
- Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA
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- Webb, Colleen T. (author)
- Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA
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- Miller, Ryan S. (author)
- US Dept Agr Vet Serv, CO 80526 USA
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- Portacci, Katie (author)
- US Dept Agr Vet Serv, CO 80526 USA
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- Lindström, Tom (author)
- Linköpings universitet,Teoretisk Biologi,Tekniska fakulteten
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2021-03-03
- 2021
- English.
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In: Royal Society Open Science. - : Royal Society of Open Science. - 2054-5703. ; 8:3
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https://liu.diva-por... (primary) (Raw object)
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https://royalsociety...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Live animal shipments are a potential route for transmitting animal diseases between holdings and are crucial when modelling spread of infectious diseases. Yet, complete contact networks are not available in all countries, including the USA. Here, we considered a 10% sample of Interstate Certificate of Veterinary Inspections from 1 year (2009). We focused on distance dependence in contacts and investigated how different functional forms affect estimates of unobserved intrastate shipments. To further enhance our predictions, we included responses from an expert elicitation survey about the proportion of shipments moving intrastate. We used hierarchical Bayesian modelling to estimate parameters describing the kernel and effects of expert data. We considered three functional forms of spatial kernels and the inclusion or exclusion of expert data. The resulting six models were ranked by widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) and evaluated through within- and out-of-sample validation. We showed that predictions of intrastate shipments were mildly influenced by the functional form of the spatial kernel but kernel shapes that permitted a fat tail at large distances while maintaining a plateau-shaped behaviour at short distances better were preferred. Furthermore, our study showed that expert data may not guarantee enhanced predictions when expert estimates are disparate.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Biologi -- Evolutionsbiologi (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Biological Sciences -- Evolutionary Biology (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- livestock; spread of disease; cattle shipment; movement network; expert data
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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