Modeling system reliability aspects of ERTMS/ETCS by fault trees and Bayesian networks

• Critical control systems require proper techniques to predict their failure rate since early design stages, in order to fulfil dependability requirements and minimize development costs. Bayesian Networks have been shown to be suitable to model system reliability aspects, extending the modeling power of Fault Trees and featuring a better solving efficiency with respect to Petri Nets. In this paper we exploit the Fault Tree and Bayesian Network formalisms in order to perform a hardware reliability analysis of a complex real world case study: the European Railway Traffic Management System/European Train Control System (ERTMS/ETCS). ERTMS/ETCS is a recent standard specification aimed at improving interoperability, performances and dependability of modern railways. An implementation of ERTMS/ETCS is a distributed heterogeneous system with strict reliability requirements. Starting from such requirements and from a reference hardware architecture, we studied system reliability by instantiating models with realistic parameters and performing a series of sensitivity analyses in order to highlight design trade-offs. By evaluating and integrating sub-models using a compositional approach we both obtained several interesting results and showed the effectiveness of a combined use of Fault Trees and Bayesian Networks in dealing with system reliability analyses of train control systems.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Elektroteknik och elektronik -- Inbäddad systemteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering -- Embedded Systems (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Bayesian networks

Computer networks

Control system analysis

Control systems

Control theory

Distributed parameter networks

Failure analysis

Fault tree analysis

Graph theory

Inference engines

Intelligent networks

Knowledge based systems

Locomotives

Marine biology

Network management

Petri nets

Quality assurance

Railroad cars

Railroad traffic control

Railroad transportation

Railroads

Reliability analysis

Risk management

Sensitivity analysis

Speech analysis

Speech recognition

Forestry

Case studies

Compositional approaches

Critical control systems

Design trades

Development costs

Distributed heterogeneous systems

Early design stages

European railways

Failure rates

Fault trees

Hardware architectures

Hardware reliabilities

Model systems

Modeling powers

Modeling systems

Real worlds

Reliability requirements

System reliabilities

Train control systems

Reliability

Design tradeoff

Failure rate

Fault-trees

Hardware architecture

Hardware reliability

Heterogeneous systems

Model system

Modeling power

Submodels

System reliability

Data- och informationsvetenskap

Computer and Information Sciences Computer Science

Publikations- och innehållstyp

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