Climate change and future long term trends of rainfall at north-east Part of Iraq

• Iraq is facing water shortage problem despite the presence of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. In this research, long rainfall trends up to the year 2099 were studied in Sulaimani city northeast Iraq to give an idea about future prospects. Two emission scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (A2 & B2) were employed. The results indicates that the average annual rainfall show a significant downward trend for both A2 and B2 scenarios. In addition, winter projects some increase/decrease in the daily rainfall statistics of wet days, the spring season show very slight drop and no change for both scenarios. However both summer and autumn show a significant reduction in maximum rainfall value especially in 2080s while the other statistics remain nearly the same. The extremes events are to decrease slightly in 2080s with highest decrease associated with A2 scenario. This because the rainfall under scenario A2 is more significant than under scenario B2 and temperature can be very hot and worse with increase in emission scenario which causes the moist air to be evaporated before going up and cause the rainfall. The return period of a certain rainfall will increase in the future when a present storm of 20 year could occur once every 43 year in the 2080s. An increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall depends on the return period, season of the year, the future period considered and the emission scenario under which it will occur

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Geoteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Geotechnical Engineering (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Soil Mechanics

Geoteknik

Publikations- och innehållstyp

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