| 1. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation : implications for communications with European forest professionals
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Beliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adaptation. We tested hypotheses based on this assumption using survey responses from 508 European forest professionals in 10 countries. We used the survey results to identify communication needs and the decision strategies at play, and to develop guidelines on adequate communications about climate change adaptation. We observed polarization in the positive and negative values associated with climate change impacts accepted by survey respondents. We identified a mechanism creating the polarization that we call the 'blocked belief' effect. We found that polarized values did not correlate with decisions about climate change adaptation. Strong belief in the local impacts of climate change on the forest was, however, a prerequisite of decision-making favoring adaptation. Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change also correlated with net values of expected specific impacts on the forest and generally increased with the absolute value of these in the absence of "tipping point" behavior. Tipping point behavior occurs when adaptation is not pursued in spite of the strongly negative or positive net value of expected climate change impacts. We observed negative and positive tipping point behavior, mainly in SW Europe and N-NE Europe, respectively. In addition we found that advice on effective adaptation may inhibit adaptation when the receiver is aware of effective adaptation measures unless it is balanced with information explaining how climate change leads to negative impacts. Forest professionals with weak expectations of impacts require communications on climate change and its impacts on forests before any advice on adaptation measures can be effective. We develop evidence-based guidelines on communications using a new methodology which includes Bayesian machine learning modeling of the equivalent of an expected utility function for the adaptation decision problem.
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| 2. |
- Persson, Johannes, et al.
(författare)
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No polarization–Expected Values of Climate Change Impacts among European Forest Professionals and Scientists
- 2020
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Ingår i: Sustainability (Switzerland). - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 7:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The role of values in climate-related decision-making is a prominent theme of climatecommunication research. The present study examines whether forest professionals are more drivenby values than scientists are, and if this results in value polarization. A questionnaire was designedto elicit and assess the values assigned to expected effects of climate change by forest professionalsand scientists working on forests and climate change in Europe. The countries involved covered anorth-to-south and west-to-east gradient across Europe, representing a wide range of bio-climaticconditions and a mix of economic–social–political structures. We show that European forestprofessionals and scientists do not exhibit polarized expectations about the values of specific impactsof climate change on forests in their countries. In fact, few differences between forest professionalsand scientists were found. However, there are interesting differences in the expected values of orest professionals with regard to climate change impacts across European countries. In NorthernEuropean countries, the aggregated values of the expected effects are more neutral than they are inSouthern Europe, where they are more negative. Expectations about impacts on timber production,economic returns, and regulatory ecosystem services are mostly negative, while expectations aboutbiodiversity and energy production are mostly positive.
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| 3. |
- Seidl, Rupert, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review
- 2011
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Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800. ; 222:4, s. 903-924
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework founded in disturbance ecology to analyze modelling approaches for drought, wind, forest fires, insect pests and ungulate browsing. Modelling approaches were reviewed by disturbance agent and mechanism, and a set of general disturbance modelling concepts was deduced. We found that although the number of disturbance modelling approaches emerging over the last 15 years has increased strongly, statistical concepts for descriptive modelling are still largely prevalent over mechanistic concepts for explanatory and predictive applications. Yet, considering the increasing importance of disturbances for forest dynamics and ecosystem stewardship under anthropogenic climate change, the latter concepts are crucial tool for understanding and coping with change in forest ecosystems. Current challenges for disturbance modelling in forest ecosystems are thus (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, (ii) to further a mechanistic foundation in disturbance modelling, (iii) to integrate multiple disturbance processes in dynamic ecosystem models for decision support in forest management, and (iv) to bring together scaling capabilities across several levels of organization with a representation of system complexity that captures the emergent behaviour of disturbance regimes. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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