Export sales forecasting using artificial intelligence

• Sales forecasting is important in production and supply chain management. It affects firms’ planning, strategy, marketing, logistics, warehousing and resource management. While traditional time series forecasting methods prevail in research and practice, they have several limitations. Causal forecasting methods are capable of predicting future sales behavior based on relationships between variables and not just past behavior and trends. This research proposes a framework for modeling and forecasting export sales using Genetic Programming, which is an artificial intelligence technique derived from the model of biological evolution. Analyzing an empirical case of an export company, an export sales forecasting model is suggested. Moreover, a sales forecast for a period of six weeks is conducted, the output of which is compared with the real sales data. Finally, a variable sensitivity analysis is presented for the causal forecasting model.

Ämnesord

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Företagsekonomi (hsv//swe)

SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Economics and Business -- Business Administration (hsv//eng)

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Transportteknik och logistik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Transport Systems and Logistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Artificial intelligence

Causal forecasting

Export sales forecast

Genetic programming

Modeling

Biology

Genetic algorithms

Sales

Sensitivity analysis

Supply chain management

Artificial intelligence techniques

Biological evolution

Forecasting methods

Forecasting modeling

Modeling and forecasting

Resource management

Sales forecasting

Time series forecasting

Forecasting

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