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Tropospheric Respon...
Tropospheric Response to Stratospheric Variability via Lagged Quantile Regression
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- Finke, Kathrin (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)
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- Hannachi, Abdel (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2022
- 2022
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 49:15
- Relaterad länk:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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visa fler...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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visa färre...
Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Stratospheric variability may affect tropospheric weather on time scales between a few weeks and a few months, thus providing great potential for sub-seasonal to seasonal weather forecasts of extremes. Unlike standard linear regression, which is based on the conditional mean of the response variable, lagged quantile regression is used here, which enables modeling the response variable's complete conditional distribution. Using the ERA5 reanalysis, we explore the relation of prominent teleconnection indices and gridded tropospheric fields to the stratosphere during boreal winter for various quantiles and lags. Significant differences in duration, strength, and direction of the stratosphere-troposphere connection in outer quantiles compared to the median are identified. In particular, tropospheric extremes and their relation to the polar vortex strength are discussed, and an outlook is given.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- surface temperature extremes
- lagged response
- stratosphere-troposphere interaction
- quantile regression
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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