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Arctic climate chan...
Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth
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Koenigk, Torben (författare)
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- Brodeau, Laurent (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)
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- Graversen, RuneGrand (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)
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- Karlsson, Johannes (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)
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- Svensson, Gunilla (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)
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- Tjernström, Michael (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)
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Willén, Ulrika (författare)
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Wyser, Klaus (författare)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2012-09-01
- 2012
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer-Verlag New York. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 40:11-12
- Relaterad länk:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://su.diva-port... (primary) (Raw object)
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https://link.springe...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- The Arctic climate change is analyzed in anensemble of future projection simulations performed withthe global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earthsimulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relativelywell but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea icethickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-firstcentury, the results show a continuation and strengtheningof the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades,which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate,especially in the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Theannually averaged Arctic mean near-surface temperatureincreases by 12 K in RCP8.5, with largest warming in theBarents Sea region. The warming is most pronounced inwinter and autumn and in the lower atmosphere. The Arcticwinter temperature inversion is reduced in all scenarios anddisappears in RCP8.5. The Arctic becomes ice free inSeptember in all RCP8.5 simulations after a rapid reductionevent without recovery around year 2060. Taking intoaccount the overestimation of ice in the twentieth century,our model results indicate a likely ice-free Arctic inSeptember around 2040. Sea ice reductions are most pronouncedin the Barents Sea in all RCPs, which lead to themost dramatic changes in this region. Here, surface heatfluxes are strongly enhanced and the cloudiness is substantiallydecreased. The meridional heat flux into theArctic is reduced in the atmosphere but increases in theocean. This oceanic increase is dominated by an enhancedheat flux into the Barents Sea, which strongly contributes tothe large sea ice reduction and surface-air warming in thisregion. Increased precipitation and river runoff lead to morefreshwater input into the Arctic Ocean. However, most ofthe additional freshwater is stored in the Arctic Ocean whilethe total Arctic freshwater export only slightly increases.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Arctic climate
- Future scenarios
- CMIP5
- Global coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling
- Coupled Arctic climate processes
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