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Baserunning - analy...
Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices
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- Westin, Jonas (författare)
- Umeå universitet,Centrum för regionalvetenskap (CERUM)
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- de Jong, Gerard (författare)
- ITS Leeds och Significance
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- Vierth, Inge (författare)
- VTI och CTS
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visa fler...
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- Krüger, Niclas (författare)
- VTI och CTS
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- Karlsson, Rune (författare)
- VTI
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- Johansson, Magnus (författare)
- CTS och Trafikanalys
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visa färre...
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(creator_code:org_t)
- Engelska.
- Relaterad länk:
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- The purpose of the paper is to analyze how sensitive the Swedish national freight model system Samgods is to uncertainties in its production-consumption matrices (PC-matrices). This is done by studying how sensitive outputs from one of its key component, the logistics model, are to changes in the PC-matrices. This paper is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to analyze the sensitivity and economies of scale of a national freight transport model using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that the logistics model is able to find new logistics solutions when larger demand volumes are assumed. Freight volumes are calculated to shift to sea transport. If the transport volume increases with one percent, the logistics cost per tonne is on average reduced by about 0.5 percent. Part of the cost reduction comes from increased consolidation of shipments due to larger transport volumes. There is also a positive correlation between total transport demand and the load factor for heavier lorries, trains and larger ships. Without empirical data and further analysis it is difficult to assess the estimated strength of the effect. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that it might be possible to reduce runtimes by removing small transport flows from the PC-matrices without affecting aggregate results too much.
Ämnesord
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Nationalekonomi (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Economics and Business -- Economics (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- sensitivity analysis
- large scale freight model
- Monte Carlo simulation
- nationalekonomi
- Economics
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- vet (ämneskategori)
- ovr (ämneskategori)