The risk of infectious diseases introduction into non-infected countries by travelers visiting endemic countries

• This work is an attempt to estimate the risk of infections importation and exportation by travelers. In it we propose a model that takes into account the force of infection of the disease in the endemic country, which can either be a visited country (source of infection importation) or a country from where local residents export the infection when travel in the latent condition for disease-free countries. The model is deterministic but a preliminary stochastic formulation is presented in the appendix. It considers two countries: one is the host home-country and the other is the source country (with an endemic infectious disease). Susceptible individuals travel from their home-country to the endemic country and eventually return infected. The input of the model is the force of infection at the visited/source country which is assumed to be known and we assume that, in the case of disease importation, travelers are subject to the same risk of infection as local residents but do not contribute to it. In the case of disease exportation, the model calculates the probability that a latent individual travels from an endemic (or epidemic) country to a disease-free country. We exemplify the model with two distinct situation, namely, the risk of dengue importation from Thailand to Europe and the risk of Ebola exportation from Liberia to the USA.Disclosure: Nothing to disclose.

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)

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