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Sökning: id:"swepub:oai:DiVA.org:umu-200490" > Impact of heat on m...

Impact of heat on mortality in 15 european cities : attributable deaths under different weather scenarios

Baccini, M. (författare)
Department of Statistics G. Parenti, University of Florence, Florence, Italy; Biostatistics Unit, ISPO Cancer Prevention and Research Institute, Florence, Italy; Department of Statistics, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Kosatsky, T. (författare)
Environmental Health Division, BC Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, Canada; Global Change and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Rome, Italy; WHO Regional Office for Europe, Rome, Italy
Analitis, A. (författare)
Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, Athens, Greece; Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, Athens, Greece
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Anderson, H.R. (författare)
Division of Community Health Sciences, MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health, St. George's, University of London, London, United Kingdom; Division of Community Health Sciences, St. George’s, University of London, London, United Kingdom
D'Ovidio, M. (författare)
Department of Epidemiology, Local Health Authority Rome e, Rome, Italy
Menne, B. (författare)
Global Change and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Rome, Italy; WHO Regional Office for Europe, Rome, Italy
Michelozzi, P. (författare)
Department of Epidemiology, Local Health Authority Rome e, Rome, Italy; Department of Epidemiology, Local Health Authority RM/E, Rome, Italy
Biggeri, A. (författare)
Department of Statistics G. Parenti, University of Florence, Florence, Italy; Biostatistics Unit, ISPO Cancer Prevention and Research Institute, Florence, Italy; Department of Statistics, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Kirchmayer, U. (författare)
Department of Epidemiology, Local Health Authority RM/E, Rome, Italy
de’Donato, F. (författare)
Department of Epidemiology, Local Health Authority RM/E, Rome, Italy
D’Ovidio, M. (författare)
Department of Epidemiology, Local Health Authority RM/E, Rome, Italy
D’Ippoliti, D. (författare)
Department of Epidemiology, Local Health Authority RM/E, Rome, Italy
Marino, C. (författare)
Department of Epidemiology, Local Health Authority RM/E, Rome, Italy
McGregor, G. (författare)
School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
Accetta, G. (författare)
Biostatistics Unit, ISPO Cancer Prevention and Research Institute, Florence, Italy
Katsouyanni, K. (författare)
Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Kassomenos, P. (författare)
Department of Astrogeophysics, University of Joannina, Joannina, Greece
Sunyer, J. (författare)
Municipal Medical Research Institute, Barcelona, Spain
Atkinson, R. (författare)
Division of Community Health Sciences, St. George’s, University of London, London, United Kingdom
Medina, S. (författare)
National Institute for Public Health Surveillance, Saint Maurice, France
Paldy, A. (författare)
National Centre of Public Health, Institute of Environmental Health, Budapest, Hungary
Bisanti, L. (författare)
Department of Epidemiology Health Authority Milan, Milan, Italy
Cadum, G. (författare)
Regional Environmental Protection Agency of Piedmont, Grugliasco, Italy
Kriz, B. (författare)
Department of Epidemiology, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
Hojs, A. (författare)
Department of Environmental Health, Institute of Public Health, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Clancy, L. (författare)
St. James’s Hospital, Dublin, Ireland
Goodman, P. (författare)
St. James’s Hospital, Dublin, Ireland
Forsberg, Bertil, professor, 1956- (författare)
Umeå universitet,Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin
Pekkanen, J. (författare)
Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, National Public Health Institute, Kuopio, Finland
Woityniak, B. (författare)
Department of Medical Statistics, National Institute of Hygiene, Warsaw, Poland
Jolliffe, I. (författare)
Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
Jendritzky, G. (författare)
German Meteorology Service, Freiburg, Germany
Blazejczyk, K. (författare)
Department of Climatology, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Warszawa, Poland
Huth, R. (författare)
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
Cegnar, T. (författare)
Climatological Department, Meteorological Office, Environmental Agency, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Schindler, C. (författare)
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
Ballester, F. (författare)
Valencia School of Health Studies, Valencia, Spain
Monceau, G. (författare)
French Meteorology Service, Roissy Charles De Gaulle, France
Kalkstein, L.S. (författare)
Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Miami, United States
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Department of Statistics G Parenti, University of Florence, Florence, Italy; Biostatistics Unit, ISPO Cancer Prevention and Research Institute, Florence, Italy; Department of Statistics, University of Florence, Florence, Italy Environmental Health Division, BC Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, Canada; Global Change and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Rome, Italy; WHO Regional Office for Europe, Rome, Italy (creator_code:org_t)
2009-10-26
2011
Engelska.
Ingår i: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0143-005X .- 1470-2738. ; 65:1, s. 64-70
Relaterad länk:
https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
Abstract Ämnesord
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  • Background: High ambient summer temperatures have been shown to influence daily mortality in cities across Europe. Quantification of the population mortality burden attributable to heat is crucial to the development of adaptive approaches. The impact of summer heat on mortality for 15 European cities during the 1990s was evaluated, under hypothetical temperature scenarios warmer and cooler than the mean and under future scenarios derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES).Methods: A Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate the number of deaths attributable to heat for each city. These estimates rely on the results of a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis that combines city-specific heat-mortality functions.Results: The number of heat-attributable deaths per summer ranged from 0 in Dublin to 423 in Paris. The mean attributable fraction of deaths was around 2%. The highest impact was in three Mediterranean cities (Barcelona, Rome and Valencia) and in two continental cities (Paris and Budapest). The largest impact was on persons over 75 years; however, in some cities, important proportions of heat-attributable deaths were also found for younger adults. Heat-attributable deaths markedly increased under warming scenarios. The impact under SRES scenarios was slightly lower or comparable to the impact during the observed hottest year.Conclusions: Current high summer ambient temperatures have an important impact on European population health. This impact is expected to increase in the future, according to the projected increase of mean ambient temperatures and frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves.

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Hälsovetenskap -- Arbetsmedicin och miljömedicin (hsv//swe)
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Health Sciences -- Occupational Health and Environmental Health (hsv//eng)
MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)

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