To move or not to move: assessing the viability of translocating Mimosa luisana for climate adaptation in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley, Mexico

• Climate change is threatening range-restricted species world-wide, but assessments of vulnerability is lacking in many areas, especially in tropical mountain regions. We assessed the vulnerability of the tropical dry forest species Mimosa luisana, an important nurse plant facilitating the establishment of other species, and provider of ecosystem services to local communities. We projected changes in the geographic distribution and extent of the climatic envelope of M. luisana for the periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, using the Maximun Entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt). We also tested the response of local provenances of M. luisana to different climate change scenarios by transplanting them to new elevations. We found that new areas at higher elevation will become climatically suitable for M. luisana in the future, without losing its current geographic range, so that its geographic range may expand by between 50% and 313%. Transplantation showed that M. luisana can grow and survive in a wide range of conditions. Moreover, M. luisana was able to survive when translocated 700 m upwards, to areas above its current elevational limit. We conclude that M. luisana is not in need of assisted migration to escape climate-related extinction, but translocation to areas that become climatically suitable may be beneficial to its conservation. The species may be used in ecological restoration projects in a wide range of conditions, including beyond its present range, increasing the likelihood of success in present and future ecological restoration actions. However, we acknowledge the need for assessing the climate-change effects on reproduction and the dispersal capacity of the species. 

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Climate change

restoration

Mimosa luisana

assisted migration

conservation translocation.

Publikations- och innehållstyp

vet (ämneskategori)

ovr (ämneskategori)