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Estimation of gravi...
Estimation of gravity models by OLS estimation, NLS estimation, Poisson, and Neural Network specifications
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- Bergkvist, Erik (författare)
- Umeå universitet,Institutionen för nationalekonomi
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- Westin, Lars, 1953- (författare)
- Umeå universitet,Institutionen för nationalekonomi,Centrum för regionalvetenskap (CERUM)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 1997
- Engelska 16 s.
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Serie: Regional Dimensions Working Paper, 1400-4526 ; 6
- Relaterad länk:
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Four specifications of gravity models for freight flow prediction are compared. The traditional specification with OLS estimation is compared with non-linear least squares (NLS) estimation as well as with a model where data are assumed to be Poisson distributed. These are compared with a semi-parametric neural network model. Data consists of freight flows between Norwegian counties. The attribute describing a node is population while distance gives the friction on links of transportation. Results show that estimation with OLS and NLS is inferior to Poisson and Neural Network specifications. However, the Poisson model, although advantageous compared to OLS, may still be improved upon. The semiparametric Neural Network does require less of these restrictions to hold and also outperforms the others as a tool for forecast in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The NLS model although showed the best performance when estimated on known data.
Ämnesord
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Nationalekonomi (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Economics and Business -- Economics (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Gravity model
- Transportation
- Freight flows
- Spatial interaction
- OLS
- Poisson-regression
- Non-linear regression
- Neural network
- Economics
- Nationalekonomi
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- vet (ämneskategori)
- rap (ämneskategori)