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Evaluation of the C...
Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts
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- Richardson, David S. (författare)
- European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England.;Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading, Berks, England.
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- Cloke, Hannah L. (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading, Berks, England.;Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England
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- Pappenberger, Florian (författare)
- European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England.
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European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England;Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading, Berks, England. Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära (creator_code:org_t)
- AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2020
- 2020
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 47:11
- Relaterad länk:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://uu.diva-port... (primary) (Raw object)
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first systematic, objective evaluation of the consistency of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble using a measure of forecast divergence that takes account of the full ensemble distribution. Focusing on forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European Blocking regimes up to 2 weeks ahead, we identify occasional large inconsistency between successive runs, with the largest jumps tending to occur at 7-9 days lead. However, care is needed in the interpretation of ensemble jumpiness. An apparent clear flip-flop in a single index may hide a more complex predictability issue which may be better understood by examining the ensemble evolution in phase space.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- ensemble
- consistency
- jumpiness
- uncertainty
- inconsistency
- predictability
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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