Dynamic Rupture Models, Fault Interaction and Ground Motion Simulations for the Segmented Husavik-Flatey Fault Zone, Northern Iceland

• The Husavik-Flatey Fault Zone (HFFZ) is the largest strike-slip fault in Iceland and poses a high seismic risk to coastal communities. To investigate physics-based constraints on earthquake hazards, we construct three fault system models of varying geometric complexity and model 79 3-D multi-fault dynamic rupture scenarios in the HFFZ. By assuming a simple regional prestress and varying hypocenter locations, we analyze the rupture dynamics, fault interactions, and the associated ground motions up to 2.5 Hz. All models account for regional seismotectonics, topo-bathymetry, 3-D subsurface velocity, viscoelastic attenuation, and off-fault plasticity, and we explore the effect of fault roughness. The rupture scenarios obey earthquake scaling relations and predict magnitudes comparable to those of historical events. We show how fault system geometry and segmentation, hypocenter location, and prestress can affect the potential for rupture cascading, leading to varying slip distributions across different portions of the fault system. Our earthquake scenarios yield spatially heterogeneous near-field ground motions modulated by geometric complexities, topography, and rupture directivity, particularly in the near-field. The average ground motion attenuation characteristics of dynamic rupture scenarios of comparable magnitudes and mean stress drop are independent of variations in source complexity, magnitude-consistent and in good agreement with the latest regional empirical ground motion models. However, physics-based ground motion variability changes considerably with fault-distance and increases for unilateral compared to bilateral ruptures. Systematic variations in physics-based near-fault ground motions provide important insights into the mechanics and potential earthquake hazard of large strike-slip fault systems, such as the HFFZ. Plain Language Summary The Husavik-Flatey Fault Zone (HFFZ) is the largest strike-slip fault in Iceland, located in the Tjornes Fracture Zone in Northern Iceland where the largest earthquakes in Iceland have occurred. At present the seismogenic potential of HFFZ suggests that an earthquake of magnitude similar to 7 is possible, which poses a high earthquake hazard in the region. In this study, we generate a set of plausible earthquake rupture scenarios on the HFFZ that account for multi-physics, regional geology and topo-bathymetry. We simulate the corresponding seismic ground motions by exploring various assumptions, for example, in terms of slipping fault geometry and hypocenter locations. Our simulated scenarios have comparable magnitudes with historic events. The physics-based ground motion scaling conforms to new empirical ground motion models, but shows varying ground motion variability with distance. Our study provides an overview of multiple rupture scenarios on the HFFZ and suggests that an ensemble of physics-based dynamic rupture scenarios can complement classical seismic hazard assessment methods to better characterize the hazard in tectonically and seismically complex regions, especially in data-scarce regions.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Geofysik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Geophysics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Husavik-Flatey Fault Zone

dynamic rupture models

ground motion

rupture directivity

fault roughness

seismic hazard assessment

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