Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts

• This paper compares forecast effects of the Stockholm congestion charges with actual outcomes. The most important concerns during the design of the congestion charging scheme were the traffic reduction in bottlenecks, the increase in public transport ridership, the decrease of vehicle kilometres in the city centre, and potential traffic effects on circumferential roads. Comparisons of forecasts and actual outcomes show that the transport model predicted all of these factors well enough to allow planners to draw correct conclusions regarding the design and preparations for the scheme. The one major shortcoming was that the static assignment network model was unable to predict the substantial reductions of queuing times. We conclude that the transport model worked well enough to be useful as decision support, performing considerably better than unaided "experts' judgments", but that results must be interpreted taking the model's limitations into account. The positive experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges hence seem to be transferable to other cities in the sense that if a charging system is forecast to have beneficial effects on congestion, then this is most likely true.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Transportteknik och logistik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Transport Systems and Logistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Congestion charging

Forecast

Journey time

Estimation

Congestion relief

Public transport

Bottleneck

Decision process

22 Road: Traffic control and traffic information

22 Road: Traffic control and traffic information

02 Road: Economics

02 Road: Economics

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

art (ämneskategori)