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Assessing the Uncer...
Assessing the Uncertainty in Projecting Local Mean Sea Level from Global Temperature
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- Guttorp, P. (författare)
- Norsk Regnesentral (NR),Norwegian Computing Center (NR),University of Washington
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- Januzzi, A. (författare)
- University of Washington
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- Novak, M. (författare)
- University of Washington
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- Podschwit, H. (författare)
- University of Washington
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- Richardson, L. (författare)
- University of Washington
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- Sowder, C. D. (författare)
- University of Washington
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- Zimmerman, A. (författare)
- University of Washington
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- Bolin, David, 1983 (författare)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik,Department of Mathematical Sciences, Mathematical Statistics,University of Gothenburg,Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology
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- Särkkä, Aila, 1962 (författare)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik,Department of Mathematical Sciences, Mathematical Statistics,University of Gothenburg,Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology
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(creator_code:org_t)
- American Meteorological Society, 2014
- 2014
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. - : American Meteorological Society. - 1558-8424 .- 1558-8432. ; 53:9, s. 2163-2170
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Abstract
Ämnesord
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- The process of moving from an ensemble of global climate model temperature projections to local sea level projections requires several steps. Sea level was estimated in Olympia, Washington (a city that is very concerned with sea level rise because parts of downtown are barely above mean highest high tide), by relating global mean temperature to global sea level; relating global sea level to sea levels at Seattle, Washington; and finally relating Seattle to Olympia. There has long been a realization that accurate assessment of the precision of projections is needed for science-based policy decisions. When a string of statistical and/or deterministic models is connected, the uncertainty of each individual model needs to be accounted for. Here the uncertainty is quantified for each model in the described system and the total uncertainty is assessed in a cascading effect throughout the system. The projected sea level rise over time and its total estimated uncertainty are visualized simultaneously for the years 2000-2100, the increased uncertainty due to each of the component models at a particular projection year is identified, and estimates of the time at which a certain sea level rise will first be reached are made.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- CLIMATE-CHANGE
- DEPENDENCE
- SCENARIOS
- DEPENDENCE
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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Till lärosätets databas
- Av författaren/redakt...
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Guttorp, P.
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Januzzi, A.
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Novak, M.
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Podschwit, H.
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Richardson, L.
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Sowder, C. D.
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visa fler...
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Zimmerman, A.
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Bolin, David, 19 ...
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Särkkä, Aila, 19 ...
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- NATURVETENSKAP
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NATURVETENSKAP
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och Geovetenskap och ...
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och Klimatforskning
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Journal of Appli ...
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Göteborgs universitet
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Chalmers tekniska högskola