Using prognosis to guide inclusion criteria, define standardised endpoints and stratify follow-up in active surveillance for prostate cancer

• Objectives: To test whether using disease prognosis can inform a rational approach to active surveillance (AS) for early prostate cancer. Patients and methods: We previously developed the Cambridge Prognostics Groups (CPG) classification, a five-tiered model that uses prostate-specific antigen (PSA), Grade Group and Stage to predict cancer survival outcomes. We applied the CPG model to a UK and a Swedish prostate cancer cohort to test differences in prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in men managed conservatively or by upfront treatment in CPG2 and 3 (which subdivides the intermediate-risk classification) vs CPG1 (low-risk). We then applied the CPG model to a contemporary UK AS cohort, which was optimally characterised at baseline for disease burden, to identify predictors of true prognostic progression. Results were re-tested in an external AS cohort from Spain. Results: In a UK cohort (n=3659) the 10-year PCM was 2.3% in CPG1, 1.5%/3.5% in treated/untreated CPG2, and 1.9%/8.6% in treated/untreated CPG3. In the Swedish cohort (n=27942) the10-year PCM was 1.0% in CPG1, 2.2%/2.7% in treated/untreated CPG2, and 6.1%/12.5% in treated/untreated CPG3. We then tested using progression to CPG3 as a hard endpoint in a modern AS cohort (n=133). During follow-up (median 3.5years) only 6% (eight of 133) progressed to CPG3. Predictors of progression were a PSA density ≥0.15ng/mL/mL and CPG2 at diagnosis. Progression occurred in 1%, 8% and 21% of men with neither factor, only one, or both, respectively. In an independent Spanish AS cohort (n=143) the corresponding rates were 3%, 10% and 14%, respectively. Conclusion: Using disease prognosis allows a rational approach to inclusion criteria, discontinuation triggers and risk-stratified management in AS. © 2019 The Authors. BJU International © 2019 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Urologi och njurmedicin (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Urology and Nephrology (hsv//eng)

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Cancer och onkologi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Cancer and Oncology (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

#PCSM

#ProstateCancer

Active surveillance

Cambridge Prognostic Groups

Intermediate-risk

Localised prostate cancer

Low-risk

Stratified follow-up

Localised prostate cancer

Publikations- och innehållstyp

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