Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk

• Employing a multi-model framework, we estimate the impacts of contrasting warming levels and uneven regional socio-economic development on area, population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposures to flood magnitude and variability in global Flood-Affected Regions (FARs). These exposures to flood variability show persistent increases in FARs, but to flood magnitude only in East and South Asia. Globally, the increases in these exposures are not projected in moderate but extreme floods. Specifically, the areal exposure would be decreased (increased) by 1.8%/°C (1.9%/°C) for moderate (extreme) floods; the reduced population exposure to extreme floods can be three times higher than that to moderate floods when limiting 2 °C to 1.5 °C warming. Rapid regional economic growth of East and South Asia (whose GDP accounts for 9.8% of FARs in year 2000 to 18.5% in year 2025) would shift global GDP exposure from a decrease of 2.5%/°C to an increase of 1.7%/°C. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Flood exposures

Global warming

Multi-model framework

Socio-economic development

Economic and social effects

Economics

Regional planning

Anthropogenic warming

Extreme flood

Flood magnitudes

Gross domestic products

Population exposure

Regional economic growths

River floods

Floods

anthropogenic aspects and related phenomena

economic growth

extreme event

flood

global perspective

risk assessment

socioeconomic conditions

Far East

South Asia

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