A Polygenic Risk Score to Refine Risk Stratification and Prediction for Severe Liver Disease by Clinical Fibrosis Scores.

• A polygenic risk score based on well-known genetic variants in PNPLA3, TM6SF2, MBOAT7 and GCKR predicts hepatic fat content (PRS-HFC). Here we hypothesize that the addition of PRS-HFC to clinical fibrosis scores may improve risk stratification and prediction of severe liver disease (SLD).We used data from 266,687 individuals in the UK Biobank, evaluating the incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma and/or liver transplantation during a median follow-up of 9 years. NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), FIB-4, APRI, BARD and Forns scores, and PRS-HFC, were computed. All analyses were stratified according to the presence of diabetes, obesity and positive fatty liver index (FLI≥60).Unfavorable genetics (PRS-HFC≥0.396) further stratified the risk of SLD in subjects in intermediate/high risk classes of fibrosis scores, with higher effect in those with metabolic risk factors, and the prediction was improved by integrating PRS-HFC (AUROCs increased for all scores with p∼10-2-10-4, except for APRI in the overall population and in subjects with obesity. PRS-HFC improved diagnostic accuracies and positive predictive values for SLD in intermediate-high clinical score risk classes. Risk stratification and prediction were not/poorly affected by unfavorable genetics in subjects without metabolic risk factors.Integration of genetics with clinical fibrosis scores refines individual risk and prediction for SLD, mainly in individuals at risk for NAFLD. These data provide first evidence from a prospective cohort that common genetic variants capture additional prognostic insights not conveyed by validated clinical/biochemical parameters.

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Kardiologi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Genetics

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD)

PNPLA3

UK Biobank

Publikations- och innehållstyp

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