Secular changes in cardiovascular risk factors and attack rate of myocardial infarction among men aged 50 in Gothenburg, Sweden. Accurate prediction using risk models

• AIMS: Coronary risk factor changes were related to attack rate of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS AND RESULTS: Cross-sectional population samples of 50-year-old men were examined every 10th year from 1963 to 2003. Attack rates of AMI were recorded from 1975 to 2004. Prevalence of smoking decreased from 56% in 1963 to 22% in 2003. Leisure time physical activity decreased (n.s.), while psychological stress remained the same. Diabetes prevalence increased from 3.6% to 6.6%. Body mass index (BMI) increased from 24.8 to 26.4 kg m(-2). Blood pressures decreased from 138.2/90.6 to 134.7/84.9 mmHg (P = 0.00001). Serum total cholesterol decreased from 6.42 to 5.50 mmol L(-1) (P = 0.0001), but serum triglycerides increased from 1.26 to 1.71 mmol L(-1) (P = 0.0001). The multivariable risk according to total cholesterol, blood pressure and smoking for AMI decreased from the set value 1.0 in 1963 to 0.418. From 1975-1979 to 2000-2004 attack rates for AMI for the age groups 35-44, 45-54 and 55-64 declined to 45%, 46% and 45%, respectively. The 28-day case fatality declined from 30%, 38% and 46% to 12%, 16% and 20%. CONCLUSION: The more than 50% decline in attack rate of AMI during 30 years was comparable with the decline in risk factors.

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Kardiologi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems (hsv//eng)

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Allmänmedicin (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- General Practice (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Anthropometry

Blood Pressure

Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology

Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology

Epidemiologic Methods

Health Behavior

Humans

Lipids/blood

Male

Middle Aged

Motor Activity

Myocardial Infarction/*epidemiology/etiology

Smoking/adverse effects/epidemiology/trends

Stress

Psychological/complications/epidemiology

Sweden/epidemiology

Anthropometry

Family medicine

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