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Confidence interval...
Confidence interval estimation tasks and the economics of overconfidence
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- Cesarini, David (författare)
- New York University
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- Sandewall, Örjan (författare)
- London School of Economics and Political Science (United Kingdom, London) - LSE
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- Johannesson, Magnus (författare)
- Stockholm School of Economics,Handelshögskolan i Stockholm
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(creator_code:org_t)
- Elsevier B.V, 2006
- 2006
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Journal of economic behavior & organization. - : Elsevier B.V. - 1879-1751 .- 0167-2681. ; 61:3, s. 453-470
- Relaterad länk:
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http://swopec.hhs.se...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- We investigate the robustness of results from confidence interval estimation tasks with respect to a number of manipulations: frequency assessments, peer frequency assessments, iteration, and monetary incentives. Our results suggest that a large share of the overconfidence in interval estimation tasks is an artifact of the response format. Using frequencies and monetary incentives reduces the measured overconfidence in the confidence interval method by about 65 percent. The results are consistent with the notion that subjects have a deep aversion to setting broad confidence intervals, a reluctance that we attribute to a socially rational trade-off between informativeness and accuracy.
Ämnesord
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Nationalekonomi (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Economics and Business -- Economics (hsv//eng)
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- art (ämneskategori)
- ref (ämneskategori)
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