Alarm characteristics for a flood warning system with deterministic components

• A method for evaluating a predictor-based alarm system is studied in this paper. The predictor is composed of a deterministic component reflecting external information and a statistically based component for the error between the measurements and the external predictor. The aim of the predictor study is twofold: it is a means of interpreting the connections between the alarm and the catastrophe, and it can be used to select suitable alarm levels. As an application, the performance of a water-level predictor as part of a flood warning system has been evaluated. The result of this analysis shows that an alarm system which operates when the predictor reaches a certain level will tend to give either too many alarms or alarms that are out of phase with the catastrophe.''

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

flood warning system

modelling

alarm system

Prediction

performance evaluation

level crossing

extremes.

Publikations- och innehållstyp

art (ämneskategori)

ref (ämneskategori)