天山典型流域水文多要素模拟与气候变化影响预估

• Because of varied topography and landscape heterogeneity，Tianshan Mountain has extremely complex hydrological processes. Considering that the climate change poses a great threat to the water security，it’s necessary to simulate the change of water elements quantitatively and systematically along with elevation. In this study，we applied the modified FLEXG-Δh model to four classic river basins in Tianshan Mountain in consideration of glacier area changes. The results suggested that：（1）FLEXG-Δh model has high simulation accuracy for the historical runoff process because the average Kling-Gupta coefficient（IKGE）in calibration is 0. 75 and IKGE in validation is 0. 60. （2）Precipitation increases along with elevation while runoff and evaporation increase first but then decreased，with the maximum values at 4 000 m and 2 000 m respectively. The height zone with the greatest runoff is mainly affected by the glacier cover，while it is the distribution of forest for the greatest evaporation. （3）By 2100，the glaciers at low altitudes will melt significantly，while there will be a little melting above 4 500 m. Under SSP1-RCP2. 6 and SSP5-RCP8. 5 scenarios，145 and 222 glaciers will completely melt and the volume of glaciers will decrease 1. 81×104 km3（54% of the existing glaciers）and 2. 44×104 km3（73% of the existing glaciers），respectively. In the SSP5-RCP8. 5 scenario，the rise of temperature will increase the evap⁃ oration but lead to the fact that the runoff depth will decrease 0. 16~1. 40 mm·a-1 below 4 000 m and increase 0. 20~0. 67 mm·a-1 above 4 000 m ，causing the height of peak value will go up by about 500 m. Under SSP1-RCP2. 6 scenario，there will be few obvious changes. This study presented the vertical zonal law of hydrology and vegetation，and predicted the impact of global changes on the Tianshan Mountains，which provided theoreti⁃ cal support for water utilization and sustainable development.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Vattenteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Water Engineering (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

climate change

FLEX-Δh model

landscape

simulation and prediction of water resources

vertical zonality

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