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Confidence levels a...
Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports : a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines
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- Kause, Astrid (författare)
- Leuphana University Lüneburg
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- De Bruin, Wändi Bruine (författare)
- University of Southern California
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- Persson, Johannes (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Teoretisk filosofi,Filosofiska institutionen,Institutioner,Humanistiska och teologiska fakulteterna,Theoretical Philosophy,Department of Philosophy,Departments,Joint Faculties of Humanities and Theology
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- Thorén, Henrik (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Teoretisk filosofi,Filosofiska institutionen,Institutioner,Humanistiska och teologiska fakulteterna,LUCSUS,Samhällsvetenskapliga institutioner och centrumbildningar,Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten,Theoretical Philosophy,Department of Philosophy,Departments,Joint Faculties of Humanities and Theology,LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies),Departments of Administrative, Economic and Social Sciences,Faculty of Social Sciences,University of Helsinki
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- Olsson, Lennart (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,LUCSUS,Samhällsvetenskapliga institutioner och centrumbildningar,Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten,LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies),Departments of Administrative, Economic and Social Sciences,Faculty of Social Sciences
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- Wallin, Annika (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Kognitionsvetenskap,Filosofiska institutionen,Institutioner,Humanistiska och teologiska fakulteterna,Cognitive Science,Department of Philosophy,Departments,Joint Faculties of Humanities and Theology
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- Dessai, Suraje (författare)
- University of Leeds
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- Vareman, Niklas (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Praktisk filosofi,Filosofiska institutionen,Institutioner,Humanistiska och teologiska fakulteterna,Medicinsk etik,Sektion II,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Lund,Medicinska fakulteten,Vetenskap och Beprövad Erfarenhet (VBE),Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Practical Philosophy,Department of Philosophy,Departments,Joint Faculties of Humanities and Theology,Medical Ethics,Section II,Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund,Faculty of Medicine,VBE,Lund University Research Groups
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2022-07-04
- 2022
- Engelska 18 s.
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 173
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Scientific assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inform policymakers and the public about the state of scientific evidence and related uncertainties. We studied how experts from different scientific disciplines who were authors of IPCC reports, interpret the uncertainty language recommended in the Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. This IPCC guidance note discusses how to use confidence levels to describe the quality of evidence and scientific agreement, as well likelihood terms to describe the probability intervals associated with climate variables. We find that (1) physical science experts were more familiar with the IPCC guidance note than other experts, and they followed it more often; (2) experts’ confidence levels increased more with perceptions of evidence than with agreement; (3) experts’ estimated probability intervals for climate variables were wider when likelihood terms were presented with “medium confidence” rather than with “high confidence” and when seen in context of IPCC sentences rather than out of context, and were only partly in agreement with the IPCC guidance note. Our findings inform recommendations for communications about scientific evidence, assessments, and related uncertainties.
- Scientific assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inform policymakers and the public about the state of scientific evidence and related uncertainties. We studied how experts from different scientific disciplines who were authors of IPCC reports, interpret the uncertainty language recommended in the Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. This IPCC guidance note discusses how to use confidence levels to describe the quality of evidence and scientific agreement, as well likelihood terms to describe the probability intervals associated with climate variables. We find that (1) physical science experts were more familiar with the IPCC guidance note than other experts, and they followed it more often; (2) experts’ confidence levels increased more with perceptions of evidence than with agreement; (3) experts’ estimated probability intervals for climate variables were wider when likelihood terms were presented with “medium confidence” rather than with “high confidence” and when seen in context of IPCC sentences rather than out of context, and were only partly in agreement with the IPCC guidance note. Our findings inform recommendations for communications about scientific evidence, assessments, and related uncertainties.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Uncertainty
- communication
- confidence
- probability
- expert judgment
- scientific assessment
- IPCC
- uncertainty
- Communication
- Confidence
- Probability
- Expert judgment
- Scientific assessment
- IPCC
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- art (ämneskategori)
- ref (ämneskategori)
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