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Societal drought vu...
Societal drought vulnerability and the Syrian climate-conflict nexus are better explained by agriculture than meteorology
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- Eklund, Lina (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Centrum för Mellanösternstudier (CMES),Samhällsvetenskapliga institutioner och centrumbildningar,Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science,Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies (CMES),Departments of Administrative, Economic and Social Sciences,Faculty of Social Sciences
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- Theisen, Ole Magnus (författare)
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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- Baumann, Matthias (författare)
- Humboldt University of Berlin
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- Forø Tollefsen, Andreas (författare)
- Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
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- Kuemmerle, Tobias (författare)
- Humboldt University of Berlin
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- Østergaard Nielsen, Jonas (författare)
- Humboldt University of Berlin
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2022
- 2022
- Engelska 9 s.
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Ingår i: Nature Communications Earth & Environment. - 2662-4435. ; 3:85
- Relaterad länk:
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https://www.nature.c... (free)
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Droughts are often suspected to increase the risk of violent conflict through agricultural production shocks, and existing studies often explore these links through meteorological proxies. In Syria, an alleged agricultural collapse caused by drought is assumed to have contributed to increased migration and the conflict outbreak in 2011. Here we use satellite derived cropland and climate data to study land use dynamics in relation to drought and conflict in Syria. We show that claims of an agricultural collapse cannot be substantiated as croplands saw a fast recovery after the 2007–2009 drought. Our study highlights the importance of considering land-use dynamics for understanding linkages between meteorological droughts, agricultural impacts, migration and conflict. Furthermore, our results suggest that the influential drought-migration-conflict narrative for Syria needs to be reexamined, with implications for wider discussions of how climate change might alter conflict risk.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Multidisciplinär geovetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Geosciences, Multidisciplinary (hsv//eng)
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Annan samhällsvetenskap -- Tvärvetenskapliga studier inom samhällsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Other Social Sciences -- Social Sciences Interdisciplinary (hsv//eng)
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Social och ekonomisk geografi -- Kulturgeografi (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Social and Economic Geography -- Human Geography (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- drought
- land use
- conflict
- Syria
- climate change
- migration
- agriculture
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- art (ämneskategori)
- ref (ämneskategori)
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