Patients with SLE have higher risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in comparison with controls with the same levels of traditional risk factors and intima-media measures, which is related to accumulated disease damage and antiphospholipid syndrome: a case-control study over 10 years

• SLE is a strong risk factor for premature cardiovascular (CV) disease and mortality. We investigated which factors could explain poor prognosis in SLE compared with controls.MethodsPatients with SLE and population controls without history of clinical CV events who performed carotid ultrasound examination were recruited for this study. The outcome was incident CV event and death. Event-free survival rates were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves. Relative HR (95% CI) was used to estimate risk of outcome.ResultsPatients (n=99, 87% female), aged 47 (13) years and with a disease duration of 12 (9) years, had mild disease at inclusion, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Diseases Activity Index score of 3 (1–6) and Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Damage Index score of 0 (0–1). The controls (n=109, 91% female) were 49 (12) years old. Baseline carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) did not differ between the groups, but plaques were more prevalent in patients (p=0.068). During 10.1 (9.8-10.2) years, 12 patients and 4 controls reached the outcome (p=0.022). Compared with the controls, the risk of the adverse outcome in patients increased threefold to fourfold taking into account age, gender, history of smoking and diabetes, family history of CV, baseline body mass index, waist circumference, C reactive protein, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, dyslipidaemia, cIMT and presence of carotid plaque. In patients, higher SLICC score and SLE-antiphospholipid syndrome (SLE-APS) were associated with increased risk of the adverse outcome, with respective HRs of 1.66 (95% CI 1.20 to 2.28) and 9.08 (95% CI 2.71 to 30.5), as was cIMT with an HR of 1.006 (95% CI 1.002 to 1.01). The combination of SLICC and SLE-APS with cIMT significantly improved prediction of the adverse outcome (p<0.001).ConclusionIn patients with mild SLE of more than 10 years duration, there is a threefold to fourfold increased risk of CV events and death compared with persons who do not have SLE with similar pattern of traditional CV risk factors, cIMT and presence of carotid plaque. SLICC, SLE-APS and subclinical atherosclerosis may indicate a group at risk of worse outcome in SLE.

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