Future demand for space heating in buildings: a top-down analysis

• If the trends in energy demand for residential sector space heating seen inSweden from 1970 to 2005 continue, total demand is predicted to fall from52 TWh to 47 TWh by 2050. This fall will occur despite projected increasesin average dwelling size and population size. This is because the unit consumption(kWh/m2) of energy use for space heating continues to fall and itstrajectory will offset increases in demand attributable to increases in averagedwelling size and population size. These figures correspond to a reduction inunit consumption for energy for space heating from 125 kWh/m2 to between60 kWh/m2 and 74 kWh/m2. This fall can be amplified through higherenergy prices and increased energy efficiency, to reduce the total to 37 TWh(60 kWh/m2). However, the price elasticity of demand for energy for heatingin dwellings has been found to be very low (-0.16), which means that improvementsin energy efficiency brought about by direct regulatory intervention andincremental technical breakthroughs are of greater importance.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Annan teknik -- Övrig annan teknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Other Engineering and Technologies -- Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified (hsv//eng)

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Nationalekonomi (hsv//swe)

SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Economics and Business -- Economics (hsv//eng)

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Naturresursteknik -- Annan naturresursteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Environmental Engineering -- Other Environmental Engineering (hsv//eng)

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