| 1. |
- Olsson, J., et al.
(författare)
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Initial assessment of a multi-model approach to spring flood forecasting in Sweden
- 2016
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1812-2108. ; 12:6, s. 6077-6113
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden and proper reservoir management prior to the spring flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires useful forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialised set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring flood forecasting, that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal time scales, are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for three main Swedish rivers over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for specific locations and lead times improvements of 20-30 % are found. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 10 % was indicated. This demonstrates the potential of the approach and further development and optimisation into an operational system is ongoing.
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| 2. |
- Olsson, J., et al.
(författare)
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Technical Note : Initial assessment of a multi-method approach to spring-flood forecasting in Sweden
- 2016
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 20:2, s. 659-667
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden, and proper reservoir management prior to the spring-flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires accurate forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring-flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialized set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring-flood forecasting that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal timescales are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for the Swedish river Vindelälven over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring-flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for early forecasts improvements of up to 25% are found. This potential is reasonably well realized in a multi-method system, which over all forecast dates reduced the error in SFV by ∼4%. This improvement is limited but potentially significant for e.g. energy trading.
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| 3. |
- Olsson, J., et al.
(författare)
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Temporal rainfall disaggregration based on scaling properties
- 1998
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Ingår i: Water Science and Technology. - : IWA Publishing. - 0273-1223 .- 1996-9732. ; 37:11, s. 73-79
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The present study concerns disaggregation of daily rainfall time series into higher resolution. For this purpose, the scaling-based cascade model proposed by Olsson (1998) is employed. This model operates by dividing each rainy time period into halves of equal length and distributing the rainfall volume between the halves. For this distribution three possible cases are defined, and the occurrence probability of each case is empirically estimated. Olsson (1998) showed that the model was applicable between the time scales 1 hour and 1 week for rainfall in southern Sweden. In the present study, a daily seasonal (April-June; 3 years) rainfall time series from the same region was disaggregated by the model to 45-min resolution. The disaggregated data was shown to very well reproduce many fundamental characteristics of the observed 45-min data, e.g., the division between rainy and dry periods, the event structure, and the scaling behavior. The results demonstrate the potential of scaling-based approaches in hydrological applications involving rainfall.
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| 4. |
- Sivakumar, B., et al.
(författare)
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Dynamics of monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Göta basin : A search for chaos
- 2000
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 4:3, s. 407-417
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sivakumar et al. (2000a), by employing the correlation dimension method, provided preliminary evidence of the existence of chaos in the monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Göta basin in Sweden. The present study verifies and supports the earlier results and strengthens such evidence. The study analyses the monthly rainfall, runoff and runoff coefficient series using the nonlinear prediction method, and the presence of chaos is investigated through an inverse approach, i.e. identifying chaos from the results of the prediction. The presence of an optimal embedding dimension (the embedding dimension with the best prediction accuracy) for each of the three series indicates the existence of chaos in the rainfall-runoff process, providing additional support to the results obtained using the correlation dimension method. The reasonably good predictions achieved, particularly for the runoff series, suggest that the dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process could be understood from a chaotic perspective. The predictions are also consistent with the correlation dimension results obtained in the earlier study, i.e. higher prediction accuracy for series with a lower dimension and vice-versa, so that the correlation dimension method can indeed be used as a preliminary indicator of chaos. However, the optimal embedding dimensions obtained from the prediction method are considerably less than the minimum dimensions essential to embed the attractor, as obtained by the correlation dimension method. A possible explanation for this could be the presence of noise in the series, since the effects of noise at higher embedding dimensions could be significantly greater than that at lower embedding dimensions.
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