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- Armelius, Bengt-Åke, 1944-, et al.
(författare)
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Combination rules in multiple-cue probability learning : II, performance, confidence and development of rules
- 1976
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Armelius, B-Å., and Armelius, K. Combination rules in multiple-cue probability learning. II. Performance, confidence and development of rules. Umeå Psychological Reports No. 101, 1976. - Subjects' use of combination rules was studied in five two-cue multiple-cue probability learning tasks with varying degrees of predictability. Subjects were asked to state how they made their predictions at different times during the experiment. 70 % of the subjects formulated systematic and consistent combination rules, while the remaining 30 % formur lated rules that were incomplete or inconsistent. The verbal statements were found to account for the subject's actual judgments in 86 % of the cases. About 50 % of the rules were single rules, with one rule coveming the complete cue matrix and the rest were multiple rules with different rules being used for different parts of the cue matrix. Performance and confidence were higher for subjects who had formulated systematic combination rules. The results of the experiment were analyzed in terms of a two-stage model for inference behavior. According to this model subjects sample their first combination rule from a hierarchy of hypotheses about relations between cues and criterion. Frequent hypotheses in that hierarchy seem to be average, sum and difference of the two cue values. In the second stage subjects test their hypotheses or develop them through their experience with the task. In the present experiment there was some evidence that subjects using multiple rules construct their rules on the basis of their experience with the task, especially in tasks with high predictability.
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- Armelius, Bengt-Åke, 1944-, et al.
(författare)
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Combination rules in multiple-cue probability learning : I, relation to task charateristics and performance
- 1976
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Armelius, B-Å., and Armelius, K. Combination rules in multiple cue probability learning I. Relation to task characteristics and performance. Umeå Psychological Reports No. 99, 1976. - The rules used by subjects in multiple cue probability learning (MCPL) was investigated by means of verbal reports given by subjects at the end of learning of a two cue MCPL-task. Eight tasks varied factorially with respect to task predictability, cue-criterion correlations and the sign of the cue intercorre-lation. In addition there were two orthogonal tasks. 47 of the 100 subjects gave verbal descriptions that were classified as inconsistent or incomplete, 7 were classified as a single rule i.e., the same rule was used for all cue combinations, and 4-6 were classified as multiple rulesi.e., different rules were used for different parts of the cue matrix 77 % of the 53 combination rules were found to account for the systematic variance in subjects responses. While performance was related to the characteristics of the tasks, the frequency of combination rules was not. Subjects with multiple rules reached the highest level of performance and subjects with a single rule the lowest. It was concluded that the formulation of combination rules is important for performance in MCPL. Futher developments of the method to extract combination rules were discussed.
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- Armelius, Bengt-Åke, 1944-, et al.
(författare)
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Confidence and performance in probabilistic inference tasks with intercorrelated cues
- 1976
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Armelius, B-Å, and Amelius, K. Confidence and performance in probabilistic inference tasks with intercorrelated cues. Umeå Psychological Reports No. 96, 1976. - The relation between confidence and subjects' beliefs about their performance as well as their actual performance was studied in five two-cue MCPL-tasks. The tasks varied with respect to task predictability. The results were that confidence was strongly related to believed performance, but not to actual performance. The lack of relation between believed and actual performance was interpreted as support for the notion that subjects know very little about their performance in MCPL-tasks. Confidence was also perfectly related to task predictability, while performance was not. This may in certain tasks cause an illusion of achievement, i.e. subjects feel more confident than their performance allows them to.
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- Armelius, Bengt-Åke, 1944-, et al.
(författare)
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Integration rules in a multiple-cue probability learning task with intercorrelated cues
- 1975
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Armelius, B., and Armelius, K. Integratici miles in a multiple-cue probability learning task with intercorrelated cues. Umeå Psychological Reports No. 80, 1975. - The question of hew the subjects use the cues in multiple-cue probability learning tasks was studied by having the subjects fill in a questionnaire asking than to describe how they had made their predictions. The questionnaire was given after the subjects had completed their learning of a two-cue suppressor variable task for 100 trials. For 19 of the subjects it was possible to formulate a model on the basis of their verbal report. The models were classified as a) linear models b) configurai models or c) estimated weights models. The correlation between the responses generated by the model and the actual responses was computed for each subject. Goodness of fit of the models was found to be quite satisfactory. The results of the learning phase shewed that ten subjects reached a performance higher than that expected if they only utilized the information provided by the cue criterion correlations. Performance was highest for subjects using a linear model, while the achievement was low for subjects using an estimated weights model due to the low consistency. The performance of subjects using configurai models was relatively poor due to the low validity of the configurai models in the present task. When •the validity of the models was taken into account, however, the configurai nodels were found to be as easy to follow as the linear models. The conclusions were that it is possible to use the verbal reports given by the subjects to study the strategies employed by the subjects in MCPL tasks, and that it is necessary to do so since very different psychological processes may be expressed in the game mathematical model.
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- Armelius, Kerstin, 1944-, et al.
(författare)
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Confidence in multiple-cue judgments as a function of cue intercorrelation and task predictability
- 1975
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Armelius, K., & Armelius, B-Å. The hypothesis that the subjects' confidence is a direct function of the cue intercorrelation, rij, in a pure judgmental task, was tested in a two-cue MCPL experiment where the cue interearrelation and total task predictability, Re2, were inversely related. The hypothesis was supported.When the subjects received no feedback confidence was determined by rij. However, when the subjectsreceived feedback the effects of rij. on confidence was, as predicted, reduced in the direction of Re2 .
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- Armelius, Kerstin, 1944-, et al.
(författare)
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Detection of cue intercorrelation in multiple-cue probability learning
- 1975
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Armelius, K., and Armelius, B-Å. Detection of cueintercorrelation in multiple cue probability learning.Umeå Psychological Reports No. 84, 1975. - Detection of cue intercorrelation, rij, was tested in ten twocueMCPL tasks after completion of a Learning stage.The values of rij ranged from -.8O to .80. The cuecriterion correlations, rei, and the predictability of the tasks, Re2, were factorially combined. The results showed a positive linear relation between the subjective and the objective values of rij. The values of rij were, however, underestimated by about 50%. These results were consistent with previous studies on thedetection of rij. There was no relation between detection of rij and performance or any of the task parameters rei or Re2.
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- Armelius, Kerstin, 1944-, et al.
(författare)
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Note on the effects of cue-criterion correlations, cue intercorrelation and the sign of the cue intercorrelation on confidence in multiple-cue probability learning
- 1975
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Armelius, K., and Armelius, B-Å. Note on the effects of cue-criterion correlations, cue intercorrelation and the sign of the cue intercorrelation on confidence in multiple-cue probability learning. Umeå Psychological Reports, No. 83, 1975. - The subjects' confidence in the correctness of their judgments was investigated in a two-cue MCPL-experiment, where the cue-criterion correlations,as well as the sign and magnitude of the intercorrelation between the cues were systematically varied. The results showed that even though the subjects' performance was influenced by the task parameters, their confidence was not. The subjects' confidence was low, and there were no differences among conditions. In view of the finding that performance was generally low and that all tasks were considered as equally difficult, an explanation for the result might be that the five-point rating scale used to measure confidence was too insensitive and that the criterion for correctness was too strict.
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- Armelius, Kerstin, 1944-, et al.
(författare)
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Redundancy and inference behavior
- 1976
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Armelius, K., and Armelius, B-Å. Redundancy and inference behavior. Umeå Psychological Reports No. 102, 1976. -Within MCPL research redundancy has been treated as synonymous with intercorrelation among cues. As shown in the present paper this definition of redundancy is inadequate, and a definition of redundancy based on Brunswik' s conceptual frame-work and made in analogy with the definition of redundancy in information theory was proposed. Redundancy was defined as the difference between the sum of all squared correlations and the squared multiple correlation. That is, when the intercorrelation between cues does not contribute to the predictable variance in the criterion the task is redundant. When the cue intercorrelation does contribute to the predictable variance in the criterion the task was defined as a suppressor task. Some implications of this view of probabilistic inference tasks for research were discussed in the paper.
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