| 1. |
- Ali-Abri, Almukhtar, et al.
(författare)
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Regional and Global Financial Integration of the Gulf Co-operation Community Countries
- 2009
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper focuses on the extent of financial integration achieved in the GulfCooperation Community of nations, comprising of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman,Qatar and Saudi Arabia and UAE. The analysis is not limited to a mere look atopenness to capital flows. Five measures of financial integration are discussed andresorted to for making a comparison of the levels of financial integration achievedby the various members of the GCC region. It is seen that the rankings madeusing different tests of financial integration do not match always. Also, theprogress made towards regional financial integration is sometimes seen to be notcompatible with the level achieved in terms of global financial integration. By andlarge, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia emerge as the most financially integratedcountries in the region, with the banking hub bahrain clearly the most financiallyintegrated to global markets.
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| 2. |
- Batavia, Bala, et al.
(författare)
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Asset Prices and Inflation : is there a predictive link?
- 2007
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The relationship between asset prices and consumer price inflation has been inthe limelight again in the last decade. The reason has been the observedlinkages in the early 1990s between housing as well as stock market pricesand consumer prices in Japan and the U.K. Rapid asset price appreciation inthese countries was followed, with a lag, by consumer price inflation. Suchdevelopments have even sparked off debates about the need to replaceconventional consumer price measures with a broader definition whichincludes asset prices. It seems important, therefore, to ascertain whether assetprices influence consumer prices in general, for a broader spectrum ofcountries. We choose a sample including major industrial countries as well asemerging markets, and test for the significance of housing prices and shareprices in predicting inflation. Longer, higher frequency, time series data aswell as cross-section information are used to establish asset price – consumerprice links for the sample as a whole, and for particular individual countries.
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| 3. |
- Batavia, Bala, et al.
(författare)
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Domestic and International Determinants of Bond Yields
- 2009
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Earlier work on the determination of long-run interest rates have not settled the issue ofwhether long run national interest rates respond more to domestic or internationalfactors. This subject has assumed renewed interest in the wake of European economicand financial integration, with attempts to measure the degree of short and long-runfinancial integration. In this study, using a sample of ten industrial nations and emergingmarket nations, a comprehensive analysis is done of the influence of home and globalfactors on long-run bond rates. The key determinants of national long-run bond yieldsturn out to be the national short-run money market rates and the U.S long-run bondrate. The government debt burden also has explanatory powers in the case of the majorcountries in the sample. There is no evidence of complete international financialintegration in the long-run bond markets.
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| 4. |
- Batavia, Bala, et al.
(författare)
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Expected Purchasing Power parity and Budget Imbalances : Modeling the Euro and the Rupee Exchange rates
- 2006
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- An expected relative PPP model, augmented by elements of a monetary model and byexternal influences, is used to track the path of the Euro-Dollar rate since the inception ofthe European currency. A similar model is also applied to the estimation of the Rupee –Dollar exchange rate. Expected inflation rates, based on a specified formation process,are, indeed, seen to be significant determinants of the Euro exchange rate. While moneysupplies are not significant, interest rate differentials do matter; higher real Euro areainterest rates appreciate the Euro. US government budget deficits appreciate the Dollarwith a lag, presumably due to financing capital inflows, but current account deficits donot have a perceptible influence in the period of the study. Oil price increases and higherinternational reserve holdings in major Asian markets, which may be skewed towards thedollar, also have no discernible impact on the Euro-Dollar rate. For the rupee – dollarrate, interest rate differentials and inflation differentials work well as predictors. Higherinterest rates relative to the global rates appreciate the rupee, i.e., the rupee – dollar ratefalls. Higher expected inflation in India depreciates the rupee. Current account surplusesare seen to appreciate the rupee, but investment inflows function poorly as a predictor. Arandom walk model may work as well as a formal monetary – PPP model in forecastingthe rupee exchange rate.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Batavia, Bala, et al.
(författare)
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Prospects for the Euro : A Role for China and India
- 2007
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this paper, an attempt is made to evaluate the prospects of the Euro challengingthe current dominant position of the dollar as the world’s leading currency. Thisis done by identifying the factors which lie behind central bank decisions to holdreserves of major currencies. Thus, the determinants of central bank reserveholdings are analyzed for pre-Euro and post-Euro periods. It is expected thatdevelopments in major Asian countries will possess greater clout in determiningcurrency relationships in the future. So, the relative world shares of trade andincome of Asia, along with other real economic as well as financial variables andoil market developments are used in the estimation process. Different simulationsare undertaken to trace possible future scenarios for the euro and the dollar. Thesimulations indicate that a rise in emerging Asian market share of world outputwill work towards preserving dollar dominance.
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| 9. |
- Batavia, Bala, et al.
(författare)
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The Euro Also Rises
- 2009
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- It may seem now as if prophesies for a displacement of the dollar from its position ofpre-eminence in the global economy were premature. However, the last word is not saidyet on the rise of the euro In this paper, a fresh look is taken at the prospects for theeuro emerging as the main vehicle and reserve currency in the world, looking inparticular at the role of European financial markets and developments in the emergingmarkets of Asia. Output growth in the euro area and in the United States will have adecisive impact as well. The paper highlights the role of some key factors, not reallytaken up in related discussions thus far, which can influence the long-run globalinfluence of the euro area economy relative to the U.S. Alternate energy source usescenarios and continued trade and financial integration in the euro area as well as inAsia are pointed out as having crucial impacts on the global role of the euro in thefuture.
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| 10. |
- Batavia, Bala, et al.
(författare)
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Two sector models of open economies : a synthesis and an empirical application
- 2007
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Some well-known two-sector models of industrial countries exhibit acrowding out effect or relationship between the main sectors of theeconomy. This is true of the Small Open Economy, traded-non-tradedgood model without nominal wage rigidity, and for the model of the DutchDisease. In contrast, important models of semi-industrialized countries, oreven emerging markets, such as the Bose Model, portray a complimentaryrelation between the various sectors. This paper discusses a possiblesynthesis between these differing model specifications, and tests theapplicability of these models for a large sample of industrial countries,emerging markets and developing economies by analyzing the interlinkagesin their sector growth patterns.
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