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  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10009, s. 2145-2191
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6.2 years (95% UI 5.6-6.6), from 65.3 years (65.0-65.6) in 1990 to 71.5 years (71.0-71.9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5.4 years (4.9-5.8), from 56.9 years (54.5-59.1) to 62.3 years (59.7-64.8), total DALYs fell by 3.6% (0.3-7.4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26.7% (24.6-29.1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition-in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden-is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.
  • Wessel, Jennifer, et al. (författare)
  • Low-frequency and rare exome chip variants associate with fasting glucose and type 2 diabetes susceptibility
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723. ; 6
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Fasting glucose and insulin are intermediate traits for type 2 diabetes. Here we explore the role of coding variation on these traits by analysis of variants on the HumanExome BeadChip in 60,564 non-diabetic individuals and in 16,491 T2D cases and 81,877 controls. We identify a novel association of a low-frequency nonsynonymous SNV in GLP1R (A316T; rs10305492; MAF = 1.4%) with lower FG (beta = -0.09 +/- 0.01 mmol l(-1), P = 3.4 x 10(-12)), T2D risk (OR[95% CI] = 0.86[0.76-0.96], P = 0.010), early insulin secretion (beta = -0.07 +/- 0.035 pmol(insulin) mmol(glucose)(-1), P = 0.048), but higher 2-h glucose (beta = 0.16 +/- 0.05 mmol l(-1), P = 4.3 x 10(-4)). We identify a gene-based association with FG at G6PC2 (p(SKAT) = 6.8 x 10(-6)) driven by four rare protein-coding SNVs (H177Y, Y207S, R283X and S324P). We identify rs651007 (MAF = 20%) in the first intron of ABO at the putative promoter of an antisense lncRNA, associating with higher FG (beta = 0.02 +/- 0.004 mmol l(-1), P = 1.3 x 10(-8)). Our approach identifies novel coding variant associations and extends the allelic spectrum of variation underlying diabetes-related quantitative traits and T2D susceptibility.
  • GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators, GBD 2013, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
  • (NCD-RisC), NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, et al. (författare)
  • Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331288 participants
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - Elsevier. - 2213-8587. ; 3:8, s. 624-637
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA(1c). We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions. Methods We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA(1c) (HbA(1c) >= 6 . 5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG >= 7 . 0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT >= 11 . 1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG- or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r= 0 . 98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA(1c) was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42 . 8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41 . 6%; in the other 15 . 6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA(1c)-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA(1c) 6 . 5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52 . 8% (95% CI 51 . 3-54 . 3%) and a pooled specificity of 99 . 74% (99 . 71-99 . 78%) compared with FPG 7 . 0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30 . 5% (28 . 7-32 . 3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA(1c) versus FPG. Interpretation Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA(1c)-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.
  • Duell, E. J., et al. (författare)
  • Variation at ABO histo-blood group and FUT loci and diffuse and intestinal gastric cancer risk in a European population
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - 0020-7136. ; 136:4, s. 880-893
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • ABO blood serotype A is known to be associated with risk of gastric cancer (GC), but little is known how ABO alleles and the fucosyltransferase (FUT) enzymes and genes which are involved in Lewis antigen formation [and in Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) binding and pathogenicity] may be related to GC risk in a European population. The authors conducted an investigation of 32 variants at ABO and FUT1-7 loci and GC risk in a case-control study of 365 cases and 1,284 controls nested within the EPIC cohort (the EPIC-Eurgast study). Four variants (including rs505922) in ABO, and allelic blood group A (AO+AA, odds ratio = 1.84, 95%CI = 1.20-2.80) were associated with diffuse-type GC; however, conditional models with other ABO variants indicated that the associations were largely due to allelic blood group A. One variant in FUT5 was also associated with diffuse-type GC, and four variants (and haplotypes) in FUT2 (Se), FUT3 (Le) and FUT6 with intestinal-type GC. Further, one variant in ABO, two in FUT3 and two in FUT6 were associated with H. pylori infection status in controls, and two of these (in FUT3 and FUT6) were weakly associated with intestinal-type GC risk. None of the individual variants surpassed a Bonferroni corrected p-value cutoff of 0.0016; however, after a gene-based permutation test, two loci [FUT3(Le)/FUT5/FUT6 and FUT2(Se)] were significantly associated with diffuse- and intestinal-type GC, respectively. Replication and functional studies are therefore recommended to clarify the role of ABO and FUT alleles in H. pylori infection and subtype-specific gastric carcinogenesis.
  • Agudo, A, et al. (författare)
  • Hemochromatosis (HFE) gene mutations and risk of gastric cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Carcinogenesis. - Oxford University Press. - 0143-3334. ; 34:6, s. 1244-1250
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) is a strong risk factor for hepatocellular cancer, and mutations in the HFE gene associated with HH and iron overload may be related to other tumors, but no studies have been reported for gastric cancer (GC). A nested case-control study was conducted within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), including 365 incident gastric adenocarcinoma and 1284 controls matched by center, sex, age and date of blood collection. Genotype analysis was performed for two functional polymorphisms (C282Y/rs1800562 and H63D/rs1799945) and seven tagSNPs of the HFE genomic region. Association with all gastric adenocarcinoma, and according to anatomical localization and histological subtype, was assessed by means of the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) estimated by unconditional logistic regression adjusted for the matching variables. We observed a significant association for H63D with OR (per rare allele) of 1.32 (CI = 1.03-1.69). In subgroup analyses, the association was stronger for non-cardia anatomical subsite (OR = 1.60, CI = 1.16-2.21) and intestinal histological subtype (OR = 1.82, CI = 1.27-2.62). Among intestinal cases, two tagSNPs (rs1572982 and rs6918586) also showed a significant association that disappeared after adjustment for H63D. No association with tumors located in the cardia or with diffuse subtype was found for any of the nine SNPs analyzed. Our results suggest that H63D variant in HFE gene seems to be associated with GC risk of the non-cardia region and intestinal type, possibly due to its association with iron overload although a role for other mechanisms cannot be entirely ruled out.
  • Castellsague, X, et al. (författare)
  • Prospective seroepidemiologic study on the role of Human Papillomavirus and other infections in cervical carcinogenesis : Evidence from the EPIC cohort
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - Wiley-Blackwell. - 0020-7136. ; 135:2, s. 440-452
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • To evaluate prospectively the association between serological markers of selected infections, including HPV, and risk of developing cervical cancer (CC) and pre-cancer, we performed a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study that included 184 cases of invasive CC (ICC), 425 cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or carcinoma in situ (CIS), and 1,218 matched control women. At enrollment participants completed lifestyle questionnaires and provided sera. Subjects were followed-up for a median of 9 years. Immunoassays were used to detect serum antibodies to Human Herpes Virus 2 (HHV-2), Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Chlamydia pneumoniae, L1 proteins of mucosal and cutaneous HPV types, E6/E7 proteins of HPV16/18, as well as to four polyomaviruses. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) (and 95% confidence intervals (CI)) for CIN3/CIS and ICC risk were, respectively: 1.6 (1.2-2.0) and 1.8 (1.1-2.7) for L1 seropositivity to any mucosal HPV type, 1.0 (0.4-2.4) and 7.4 (2.8-19.7) for E6 seropositivity to HPV16/18, 1.3 (0.9-1.9) and 2.3 (1.3-4.1) for CT seropositivity, and 1.4 (1.0-2.0) and 1.5 (0.9-2.6) for HHV-2 seropositivity. The highest OR for ICC was observed for HPV16 E6 seropositivity (OR=10.2 (3.3-31.1)). Increasing number of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) was associated with increasing risk. Non-STIs were not associated with CC risk. In conclusion, this large prospective study confirms the important role of HPV and a possible contribution of CT and HHV-2 in cervical carcinogenesis. It further identifies HPV16 E6 seropositivity as the strongest marker to predict ICC well before disease development.
  • Jenab, M, et al. (författare)
  • Association of nut and seed intake with colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.
  • 2004
  • Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention. - 1055-9965. ; 13:10, s. 1595-603
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A link between unsaturated fatty acids or phytonutrients and reduced risk of colorectal cancer has been suggested. However, the effects of higher intake of dietary sources of these nutrients, such as the nuts and seeds food group, are less clear. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of nut and seed intake on colorectal cancer risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study, a large prospective cohort study involving 10 European countries. Total nut and seed intake was determined from country-specific dietary questionnaires. The data set included 478,040 subjects (141,988 men, 336,052 women) with a total of 855 (327 men, 528 women) colon and 474 (215 men, 259 women) rectal cancer cases. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, stratified by center and controlled for fruit intake, dietary fiber, energy, height, weight, sex, age, physical activity, and smoking, was used. The data show no association between higher intake of nuts and seeds and risk of colorectal, colon, and rectal cancers in men and women combined, but a significant inverse association was observed in subgroup analyses for colon cancer in women at the highest (>6.2 g/d) versus the lowest (nonconsumers; hazard ratio, 0.69;, 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.95) category of intake and for the linear effect of log-transformed intake (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.98), with no associations in men. It is not evident from this data why there may be a stronger association in women or why it may be limited to the colon, suggesting that much, further research is necessary.
  • Lunetta, Kathryn L., et al. (författare)
  • Rare coding variants and X-linked loci associated with age at menarche
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - Nature Publishing Group. - 2041-1723. ; 6, s. 7756
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • More than 100 loci have been identified for age at menarche by genome-wide association studies; however, collectively these explain only similar to 3% of the trait variance. Here we test two overlooked sources of variation in 192,974 European ancestry women: low-frequency proteincoding variants and X-chromosome variants. Five missense/nonsense variants (in ALMS1/LAMB2/TNRC6A/TACR3/PRKAG1) are associated with age at menarche (minor allele frequencies 0.08-4.6%; effect sizes 0.08-1.25 years per allele; P<5 x 10(-8)). In addition, we identify common X-chromosome loci at IGSF1 (rs762080, P = 9.4 x 10(-13)) and FAAH2 (rs5914101, P = 4.9 x 10(-10)). Highlighted genes implicate cellular energy homeostasis, post-transcriptional gene silencing and fatty-acid amide signalling. A frequently reported mutation in TACR3 for idiopathic hypogonatrophic hypogonadism (p.W275X) is associated with 1.25-year-later menarche (P = 2.8 x 10(-11)), illustrating the utility of population studies to estimate the penetrance of reportedly pathogenic mutations. Collectively, these novel variants explain similar to 0.5% variance, indicating that these overlooked sources of variation do not substantially explain the 'missing heritability' of this complex trait.
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