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Sökning: WFRF:(Gonzalez Carlos A.) > Lunds universitet

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1.
  • Murray, Christopher J L, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - Elsevier Limited. - 1474-547X. ; 386:10009, s. 2145-2191
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6.2 years (95% UI 5.6-6.6), from 65.3 years (65.0-65.6) in 1990 to 71.5 years (71.0-71.9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5.4 years (4.9-5.8), from 56.9 years (54.5-59.1) to 62.3 years (59.7-64.8), total DALYs fell by 3.6% (0.3-7.4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26.7% (24.6-29.1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition-in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden-is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.
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2.
  • Danaei, Goodarz, et al. (författare)
  • Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331288 participants
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - Elsevier. - 2213-8595. ; 3:8, s. 624-637
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA(1c). We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions. Methods We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA(1c) (HbA(1c) >= 6 . 5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG >= 7 . 0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT >= 11 . 1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG- or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r= 0 . 98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA(1c) was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42 . 8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41 . 6%; in the other 15 . 6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA(1c)-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA(1c) 6 . 5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52 . 8% (95% CI 51 . 3-54 . 3%) and a pooled specificity of 99 . 74% (99 . 71-99 . 78%) compared with FPG 7 . 0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30 . 5% (28 . 7-32 . 3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA(1c) versus FPG. Interpretation Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA(1c)-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.
3.
  • Zhou, Bin, et al. (författare)
  • Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980 : : A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - Elsevier Limited. - 0140-6736. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes. Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
4.
  • Bentham, James, et al. (författare)
  • A century of trends in adult human height
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: eLife. - eLife Sciences Publications LTD.. - 2050-084X. ; 5:2016JULY
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3- 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8- 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
5.
  • Hudson, Thomas J., et al. (författare)
  • International network of cancer genome projects
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Nature. - Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836. ; 464:7291, s. 993-998
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) was launched to coordinate large-scale cancer genome studies in tumours from 50 different cancer types and/or subtypes that are of clinical and societal importance across the globe. Systematic studies of more than 25,000 cancer genomes at the genomic, epigenomic and transcriptomic levels will reveal the repertoire of oncogenic mutations, uncover traces of the mutagenic influences, define clinically relevant subtypes for prognosis and therapeutic management, and enable the development of new cancer therapies.
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6.
  • Vermeulen, E, et al. (författare)
  • Dietary Flavonoid Intake and Esophageal Cancer Risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Cohort
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Epidemiology. - Oxford University Press. - 0002-9262. ; 178:4, s. 570-581
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We prospectively investigated dietary flavonoid intake and esophageal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The study included 477,312 adult subjects from 10 European countries. At baseline, country-specific validated dietary questionnaires were used. During a mean follow-up of 11 years (1992-2010), there were 341 incident esophageal cancer cases, of which 142 were esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), 176 were esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and 23 were other types of esophageal cancer. In crude models, a doubling in total dietary flavonoid intake was inversely associated with esophageal cancer risk (hazard ratio (HR) (log(2))=0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78, 0.98) but not in multi-variable models (HR (log(2))=0.97, 95% CI: 0.86, 1.10). After covariate adjustment, no statistically significant association was found between any flavonoid subclass and esophageal cancer, EAC, or ESCC. However, among current smokers, flavonols were statistically significantly associated with a reduced esophageal cancer risk (HR (log(2)) = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.94), whereas total flavonoids, flavanols, and flavan-3-ol monomers tended to be inversely associated with esophageal cancer risk. No associations were found in either never or former smokers. These findings suggest that dietary flavonoid intake was not associated with overall esophageal cancer, EAC, or ESCC risk, although total flavonoids and some flavonoid subclasses, particularly flavonols, may reduce the esophageal cancer risk among current smokers.
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7.
  • Zamora-Ros, R, et al. (författare)
  • Dietary flavonoid and lignan intake and breast cancer risk according to menopause and hormone receptor status in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Breast Cancer Research and Treatment. - Springer. - 1573-7217. ; 139:1, s. 163-176
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Evidence on the association between dietary flavonoids and lignans and breast cancer (BC) risk is inconclusive, with the possible exception of isoflavones in Asian countries. Therefore, we investigated prospectively dietary total and subclasses of flavonoid and lignan intake and BC risk according to menopause and hormonal receptor status in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The study included 334,850 women, mostly aged between 35 and 70 years from ten European countries. At baseline, country-specific validated dietary questionnaires were used. A flavonoid and lignan food composition database was developed from the US Department of Agriculture, the Phenol-Explorer and the UK Food Standards Agency databases. Cox regression models were used to analyse the association between dietary flavonoid/lignan intake and the risk of developing BC. During an average 11.5-year follow-up, 11,576 incident BC cases were identified. No association was observed between the intake of total flavonoids [hazard ratio comparing fifth to first quintile (HRQ5-Q1) 0.97, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.90-1.04; P trend = 0.591], isoflavones (HRQ5-Q1 1.00, 95 % CI: 0.91-1.10; P trend = 0.734), or total lignans (HRQ5-Q1 1.02, 95 % CI: 0.93-1.11; P trend = 0.469) and overall BC risk. The stratification of the results by menopausal status at recruitment or the differentiation of BC cases according to oestrogen and progesterone receptors did not affect the results. This study shows no associations between flavonoid and lignan intake and BC risk, overall or after taking into account menopausal status and BC hormone receptors.
8.
  • Agudo, A, et al. (författare)
  • Hemochromatosis (HFE) gene mutations and risk of gastric cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Carcinogenesis. - Oxford University Press. - 0143-3334. ; 34:6, s. 1244-1250
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) is a strong risk factor for hepatocellular cancer, and mutations in the HFE gene associated with HH and iron overload may be related to other tumors, but no studies have been reported for gastric cancer (GC). A nested case-control study was conducted within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), including 365 incident gastric adenocarcinoma and 1284 controls matched by center, sex, age and date of blood collection. Genotype analysis was performed for two functional polymorphisms (C282Y/rs1800562 and H63D/rs1799945) and seven tagSNPs of the HFE genomic region. Association with all gastric adenocarcinoma, and according to anatomical localization and histological subtype, was assessed by means of the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) estimated by unconditional logistic regression adjusted for the matching variables. We observed a significant association for H63D with OR (per rare allele) of 1.32 (CI = 1.03-1.69). In subgroup analyses, the association was stronger for non-cardia anatomical subsite (OR = 1.60, CI = 1.16-2.21) and intestinal histological subtype (OR = 1.82, CI = 1.27-2.62). Among intestinal cases, two tagSNPs (rs1572982 and rs6918586) also showed a significant association that disappeared after adjustment for H63D. No association with tumors located in the cardia or with diffuse subtype was found for any of the nine SNPs analyzed. Our results suggest that H63D variant in HFE gene seems to be associated with GC risk of the non-cardia region and intestinal type, possibly due to its association with iron overload although a role for other mechanisms cannot be entirely ruled out.
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9.
  • Castellsague, X, et al. (författare)
  • Prospective seroepidemiologic study on the role of Human Papillomavirus and other infections in cervical carcinogenesis: Evidence from the EPIC cohort
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - John Wiley & Sons. - 0020-7136. ; 135:2, s. 440-452
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • To evaluate prospectively the association between serological markers of selected infections, including HPV, and risk of developing cervical cancer (CC) and precancer, we performed a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study that included 184 cases of invasive CC (ICC), 425 cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or carcinoma in situ (CIS), and 1,218 matched control women. At enrollment participants completed lifestyle questionnaires and provided sera. Subjects were followed-up for a median of 9 years. Immunoassays were used to detect serum antibodies to Human Herpes Virus 2 (HHV-2), Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Chlamydia pneumoniae, L1 proteins of mucosal and cutaneous HPV types, E6/E7 proteins of HPV16/18, as well as to four polyomaviruses. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) [and 95% confidence intervals (CI)] for CIN3/CIS and ICC risk were respectively: 1.6 (1.2-2.0) and 1.8 (1.1-2.7) for L1 seropositivity to any mucosal HPV type, 1.0 (0.4-2.4) and 7.4 (2.8-19.7) for E6 seropositivity to HPV16/18, 1.3 (0.9-1.9) and 2.3 (1.3-4.1) for CT seropositivity, and 1.4 (1.0-2.0) and 1.5 (0.9-2.6) for HHV-2 seropositivity. The highest OR for ICC was observed for HPV16 E6 seropositivity [OR=10.2 (3.3-31.1)]. Increasing number of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) was associated with increasing risk. Non-STIs were not associated with CC risk. In conclusion, this large prospective study confirms the important role of HPV and a possible contribution of CT and HHV-2 in cervical carcinogenesis. It further identifies HPV16 E6 seropositivity as the strongest marker to predict ICC well before disease development. What's New? Limited data are available from prospective studies concerning the role of past exposure to human papillomavirus (HPV) and other infections in cervical carcinogenesis. This study assessed associations between cervical cancer and pre-cancer and serological markers of exposure to mucosal and cutaneous HPVs, Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Chlamydia pneumonia, human herpes virus-2 (HHV-2), and polyomaviruses using a nested case-control design within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Associations were found for mucosal HPVs, CT, and HHV-2. A greater number of sexually transmitted diseases further raised the risk of cervical cancer.
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10.
  • Gonzalez, CA, et al. (författare)
  • Dietary factors and in situ and invasive cervical cancer risk in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition study
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - John Wiley & Sons. - 0020-7136. ; 129:2, s. 449-459
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Some dietary factors could be involved as cofactors in cervical carcinogenesis, but evidence is inconclusive. There are no data about the effect of fruits and vegetables intake (F&V) on cervical cancer from cohort studies. We examined the association between the intake of F&V and selected nutrients and the incidence of carcinoma in situ (CIS) and invasive squamous cervical cancer (ISC) in a prospective study of 299,649 women, participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). A calibration study was used to control measurement errors in the dietary questionnaire. After a mean of 9 years of follow-up, 253 ISC and 817 CIS cases were diagnosed. In the calibrated model, we observed a statistically significant inverse association of ISC with a daily increase in intake of 100 g of total fruits (HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.72-0.98) and a statistically nonsignificant inverse association with a daily increase in intake of 100 g of total vegetables (HR 0.85: 95% CI 0.65-1.10). Statistically nonsignificant inverse associations were also observed for leafy vegetables, root vegetables, garlic and onions, citrus fruits, vitamin C, vitamin E and retinol for ISC. No association was found regarding beta-carotene, vitamin D and folic acid for ISC. None of the dietary factors examined was associated with CIS. Our study suggests a possible protective role of fruit intake and other dietary factors on ISC that need to be confirmed on a larger number of ISC cases.
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