| 11. |
|
|
| 12. |
|
|
| 13. |
|
|
| 14. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(author)
-
A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya 1974 - 1996
- 1998
-
Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This paper develops an error correction model with the aim of analysing the behaviour of prices in Kenya during 1974 -1996. In estimating the model, we first test for cointegration in the money and foreign exchange markets, using the Johansen procedure. The cointegrating vectors are then included in an autoregressive distributed-lag model, and a general-to-specific procedure is applied to obtain a parsimonious, empirically constant, error correction model. We find that in the long run inflation emanates from movements in the exchange rate, foreign prices, and terms of trade. The error correction term for the monetary sector does not enter the model, but money supply and the interest rate influence inflation in the short run. Inflation inertia is found to be an important determinant of inflation up until 1993, when about 400f the current inflation is carried over to the next quarter. After 1993, inertia drops to about 10%. The dynamics of inflation are also influenced by food supply constraints, proxied by maize-price inflation. These findings indicate that the exchange rate is likely to be a more efficient nominal anchor than money supply, and that inflation could be made more stable by policies that secure the supply of maize during droughts.
|
|
| 15. |
|
|
| 16. |
|
|
| 17. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(author)
-
Adult Mortality, AIDS and Fertility in Rural Malawi
- 2013
-
Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The impact of HIV/AIDS on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa has received attention recently, since changes in population structure can impact on future economic development. We analyze the effect of AIDS on actual and desired fertility in rural Malawi, using data from Malawi 2004 Demographic and Health Survey and population censuses. Since AIDS was the dominating cause of death during the 1990s and early 2000s, we use prime-age adult mortality as the key explanatory variable. The focus is on heterogeneity in the response of gender-specific mortality rates. By estimating ordered probit models we show that actual fertility responds positively to male mortality but negatively to female mortality, and that the overall fertility response is positive but small. One interpretation of the findings is that the effects of female and male mortality differ because of an old-age security motive for having children. When a woman risks death before her children grow up, she is less likely to need support of children and demand should be low, but when the risk of husband’s death is high, the woman should expect to rely more on children’s support.
|
|
| 18. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(author)
-
Adult Mortality, AIDS, and Fertility in Rural Malawi
- 2016
-
In: The Developing Economies. - : Wiley. - 0012-1533 .- 1746-1049. ; 54:3, s. 215-242
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The future course of fertility is a major determinant of economic development in many sub-Saharan countries, so understanding how HIV/AIDS affects childbearing is of great interest. We show that fertility responds negatively to female mortality and positively to male mortality and that the overall fertility response is small. The negative effect of female mortality is in line with earlier studies that only focus on women and their infection and mortality risks, while the finding of a positive effect of adult-male mortality is novel. One interpretation of this finding is that women who perceive a high risk of their husbands’ or grown-up sons’ deaths are likely to want to have more children to ensure future support.
|
|
| 19. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(author)
-
Aid and child health: A disaggregated analysis of the effects of aid on impaired growth
- 2024
-
In: World Development. - 0305-750X .- 1873-5991. ; 182
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Motivated by a recent setback in the fight against child malnutrition, this study explores whether aid projects help reduce stunting or impaired growth among children close to project sites. Focusing on Malawi, a country with a very high stunting prevalence for which we have access to geo-referenced data on aid projects from a broad range of donors, we geographically match spatial data on 778 aid project sites of 22 different donors with anthropometric and background data on 26,604 children under the age of five. The detailed data allows for a disaggregated analysis comparing local aid impacts by types of aid, donor- and recipient groups. To identify the effect of aid, we rely on spatial and temporal variation in aid project coverage and survey rollout, coupled with variation in the child's age at aid exposure. The empirical results consistently indicate a positive impact of early-life aid exposure on child growth. The positive treatment effect is seemingly driven primarily by multilateral aid and is stronger in rural areas. On the other hand, we observe little heterogeneity by aid type and across socio-economic recipient groups, signaling that the treatment effect stems from improvements across the board in aid receiving areas rather than by interventions targeting the most vulnerable groups. In terms of mechanisms, the results of the mediation analysis underscore the influence of distal determinants of stunting, such as the improved economic conditions of households, which are likely to impact more proximal determinants downstream.
|
|
| 20. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(author)
-
Aid and child health: Local effects of aid on stunting in Malawi
- 2022
-
Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Motivated by a recent setback in the fight against child malnutrition, this study explores whether aid projects help to reduce stunting, or impaired growth, among children in the local area. Focusing on Malawi, a country with very high stunting prevalence and for which we have access to geo-referenced data on aid projects from a broad range of donors, we geographically match spatial data on 778 aid project sites of 22 different donors with anthropometric and background data on 26,604 children under the age of 5. To identify the effect of aid, we rely on spatial and temporal variation in aid project coverage and survey rollout, coupled with variation in childbirth years in relation to project start. The empirical results consistently indicate a positive impact of early life aid exposure on child growth. The positive treatment effect materializes already for children born in the early project implementation phase and lasts for children born up to 3 years after project start and is seemingly driven primarily by multilateral aid and projects focusing on rural development, vulnerability, infrastructure, and education.
|
|
