| 61. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 62. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(author)
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First Observation of PeV-Energy Neutrinos with IceCube
- 2013
-
In: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 111:2, s. 021103-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report on the observation of two neutrino-induced events which have an estimated deposited energy in the IceCube detector of 1.04 +/- 0.16 and 1.14 +/- 0.17 PeV, respectively, the highest neutrino energies observed so far. These events are consistent with fully contained particle showers induced by neutral-current nu(e,mu,tau) ((nu) over bar (e,mu,tau)) or charged-current nu(e) ((nu) over bar (e)) interactions within the IceCube detector. The events were discovered in a search for ultrahigh energy neutrinos using data corresponding to 615.9 days effective live time. The expected number of atmospheric background is 0.082 +/- 0.004(stat)(-0.057)(+0.041)(syst). The probability of observing two or more candidate events under the atmospheric background-only hypothesis is 2.9 x 10(-3) (2.8 sigma) taking into account the uncertainty on the expected number of background events. These two events could be a first indication of an astrophysical neutrino flux; the moderate significance, however, does not permit a definitive conclusion at this time.
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| 63. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(author)
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Improvement in fast particle track reconstruction with robust statistics
- 2014
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In: Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-9002 .- 1872-9576. ; 736, s. 143-149
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The IceCube project has transformed 1 km(3) of deep natural Antarctic ice into a Cherenkov detector Muon neutrinos are detected and their direction is inferred by mapping the light produced by the secondary muon track inside the volume instrumented with photomultipliers. Reconstructing the muon track from the observed light is challenging due to noise, light scattering in the ice medium, and the possibility of simultaneously having multiple muons inside the detector, resulting from the large flux of cosmic ray muons. This paper describes work on two problems: (1) the truck reconstruction problem, in which, given a set of observations, the goal is to recover the track of a muon; and (2) the coincident event problem, which is to determine how many muons are active in the detector during a time window. Rather than solving these problems by developing more complex physical models that are applied at later stages of the analysis, our approach is to augment the detector's early reconstruction with data filters and robust statistical techniques. These can be implemented at the level of on-line reconstruction and, therefore, improve all subsequent reconstructions. Using the metric of median angular resolution, a standard metric for track reconstruction, we improve the accuracy in the initial reconstruction direction by 13%. We also present improvements in measuring the number of muons in coincident events: we can accurately determine the number of muons 98% of the time.
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| 64. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(author)
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Measurement of South Pole ice transparency with the IceCube LED calibration system
- 2013
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In: Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-9002 .- 1872-9576. ; 711, s. 73-89
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The IceCube Neutrino Observatory, approximately 1 km(3) in size, is now complete with 86 strings deployed in the Antarctic ice. IceCube detects the Cherenkov radiation emitted by charged particles passing through or created in the ice. To realize the full potential of the detector, the properties of light propagation in the ice in and around the detector must be well understood. This report presents a new method of fitting the model of light propagation in the ice to a data set of in situ light source events collected with IceCube. The resulting set of derived parameters, namely the measured values of scattering and absorption coefficients vs. depth, is presented and a comparison of IceCube data with simulations based on the new model is shown.
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| 65. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(author)
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Measurement of the Atmospheric nu(e) Flux in IceCube
- 2013
-
In: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 110:15, s. 151105-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report the first measurement of the atmospheric electron neutrino flux in the energy range between approximately 80 GeV and 6 TeV, using data recorded during the first year of operation of IceCube's DeepCore low-energy extension. Techniques to identify neutrinos interacting within the DeepCore volume and veto muons originating outside the detector are demonstrated. A sample of 1029 events is observed in 281 days of data, of which 496 +/- 66(stat) +/- 88(syst) are estimated to be cascade events, including both electron neutrino and neutral current events. The rest of the sample includes residual backgrounds due to atmospheric muons and charged current interactions of atmospheric muon neutrinos. The flux of the atmospheric electron neutrinos is consistent with models of atmospheric neutrinos in this energy range. This constitutes the first observation of electron neutrinos and neutral current interactions in a very large volume neutrino telescope optimized for the TeV energy range.
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| 66. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(author)
-
Observation of Cosmic-Ray Anisotropy with the Icetop Air Shower Array
- 2013
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 765:1, s. 55-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report on the observation of anisotropy in the arrival direction distribution of cosmic rays at PeV energies. The analysis is based on data taken between 2009 and 2012 with the IceTop air shower array at the south pole. IceTop, an integral part of the IceCube detector, is sensitive to cosmic rays between 100 TeV and 1 EeV. With the current size of the IceTop data set, searches for anisotropy at the 10(-3) level can, for the first time, be extended to PeV energies. We divide the data set into two parts with median energies of 400 TeV and 2 PeV, respectively. In the low energy band, we observe a strong deficit with an angular size of about 30 degrees and an amplitude of (-1.58 +/- 0.46(stat) +/- 0.52(sys)) x 10(-3) at a location consistent with previous observations of cosmic rays with the IceCube neutrino detector. The study of the high energy band shows that the anisotropy persists to PeV energies and increases in amplitude to (-3.11 +/- 0.38(stat) +/- 0.96(sys)) x 10(-3).
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| 67. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(author)
-
Search for Dark Matter Annihilations in the Sun with the 79-String IceCube Detector
- 2013
-
In: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 110:13, s. 131302-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We have performed a search for muon neutrinos from dark matter annihilation in the center of the Sun with the 79-string configuration of the IceCube neutrino telescope. For the first time, the DeepCore subarray is included in the analysis, lowering the energy threshold and extending the search to the austral summer. The 317 days of data collected between June 2010 and May 2011 are consistent with the expected background from atmospheric muons and neutrinos. Upper limits are set on the dark matter annihilation rate, with conversions to limits on spin-dependent and spin-independent scattering cross sections of weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) on protons, for WIMP masses in the range 20-5000 GeV=c(2). These are the most stringent spin-dependent WIMP-proton cross section limits to date above 35 GeV=c(2) for most WIMP models.
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| 68. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(author)
-
SEARCH FOR TIME-INDEPENDENT NEUTRINO EMISSION FROM ASTROPHYSICAL SOURCES WITH 3 yr OF IceCube DATASearch for time-independent neutrino emission from astrophysical sources with 3 yr of icecube data
- 2013
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 779:2, s. 132-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the results of a search for neutrino point sources using the IceCube data collected between 2008 April and 2011 May with three partially completed configurations of the detector: the 40-, 59-, and 79-string configurations. The live-time of this data set is 1040 days. An unbinned maximum likelihood ratio test was used to search for an excess of neutrinos above the atmospheric background at any given direction in the sky. By adding two more years of data with improved event selection and reconstruction techniques, the sensitivity was improved by a factor of 3.5 or more with respect to the previously published results obtained with the 40-string configuration of IceCube. We performed an all-sky survey and a dedicated search using a catalog of a priori selected objects observed by other telescopes. In both searches, the data are compatible with the background-only hypothesis. In the absence of evidence for a signal, we set upper limits on the flux of muon neutrinos. For an E-2 neutrino spectrum, the observed limits are (0.9-5) x 10(-12) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1) for energies between 1 TeV and 1 PeV in the northern sky and (0.9-23.2) x 10(-12) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1) for energies between 10(2) TeV and 10(2) PeV in the southern sky. We also report upper limits for neutrino emission from groups of sources that were selected according to theoretical models or observational parameters and analyzed with a stacking approach. Some of the limits presented already reach the level necessary to quantitatively test current models of neutrino emission.
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| 69. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
-
All-particle cosmic ray energy spectrum measured with 26 IceTop stations
- 2013
-
In: Astroparticle physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0927-6505 .- 1873-2852. ; 44, s. 40-58
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report on a measurement of the cosmic ray energy spectrum with the IceTop air shower array, the surface component of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory at the South Pole. The data used in this analysis were taken between June and October, 2007, with 26 surface stations operational at that time, corresponding to about one third of the final array. The fiducial area used in this analysis was 0.122 km(2). The analysis investigated the energy spectrum from 1 to 100 PeV measured for three different zenith angle ranges between 0 degrees and 46 degrees. Because of the isotropy of cosmic rays in this energy range the spectra from all zenith angle intervals have to agree. The cosmic-ray energy spectrum was determined under different assumptions on the primary mass composition. Good agreement of spectra in the three zenith angle ranges was found for the assumption of pure proton and a simple two-component model. For zenith angles theta < 30 degrees, where the mass dependence is smallest, the knee in the cosmic ray energy spectrum was observed at about 4 PeV, with a spectral index above the knee of about -3.1. Moreover, an indication of a flattening of the spectrum above 22 PeV was observed.
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| 70. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Background studies for acoustic neutrino detection at the South Pole
- 2012
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In: Astroparticle physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0927-6505 .- 1873-2852. ; 35:6, s. 312-324
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The detection of acoustic signals from ultra-high energy neutrino interactions is a promising method to measure the flux of cosmogenic neutrinos expected on Earth. The energy threshold for this process depends strongly on the absolute noise level in the target material. The South Pole Acoustic Test Setup (SPATS), deployed in the upper part of four boreholes of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, has monitored the noise in Antarctic ice at the geographic South Pole for more than two years down to 500 m depth. The noise is very stable and Gaussian distributed. Lacking an in situ calibration up to now, laboratory measurements have been used to estimate the absolute noise level in the 10-50 kHz frequency range to be smaller than 20 mPa. Using a threshold trigger, sensors of the South Pole Acoustic Test Setup registered acoustic events in the IceCube detector volume and its vicinity. Acoustic signals from refreezing IceCube holes and from anthropogenic sources have been used to test the localization of acoustic events. An upper limit on the neutrino flux at energies E-v>10(11) GeV is derived from acoustic data taken over eight months. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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