| 1. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 2. |
- Lawrenson, Kate, et al.
(författare)
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Functional mechanisms underlying pleiotropic risk alleles at the 19p13.1 breast-ovarian cancer susceptibility locus
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A locus at 19p13 is associated with breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Here we analyse 438 SNPs in this region in 46,451 BC and 15,438 OC cases, 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 73,444 controls and identify 13 candidate causal SNPs associated with serous OC (P=9.2 × 10-20), ER-negative BC (P=1.1 × 10-13), BRCA1-associated BC (P=7.7 × 10-16) and triple negative BC (P-diff=2 × 10-5). Genotype-gene expression associations are identified for candidate target genes ANKLE1 (P=2 × 10-3) and ABHD8 (P<2 × 10-3). Chromosome conformation capture identifies interactions between four candidate SNPs and ABHD8, and luciferase assays indicate six risk alleles increased transactivation of the ADHD8 promoter. Targeted deletion of a region containing risk SNP rs56069439 in a putative enhancer induces ANKLE1 downregulation; and mRNA stability assays indicate functional effects for an ANKLE1 3′-UTR SNP. Altogether, these data suggest that multiple SNPs at 19p13 regulate ABHD8 and perhaps ANKLE1 expression, and indicate common mechanisms underlying breast and ovarian cancer risk.
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| 3. |
- Björkman, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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Spatial Distribution of Falciparum Malaria Infections in Zanzibar : Implications for Focal Drug Administration Strategies Targeting Asymptomatic Parasite Carriers
- 2017
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Ingår i: Clinical Infectious Diseases. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1058-4838 .- 1537-6591. ; 64:9, s. 1236-1243
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Optimal use of mass/targeted screen-and-treat or mass or focal drug administration as malaria elimination strategies remains unclear. We therefore studied spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum infections to compare simulated effects of these strategies on reducing the parasite reservoir in a pre-elimination setting.Methods: P. falciparum rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and molecular (polymerase chain reaction [PCR]) and serological (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) analyses were performed on finger-prick blood samples from a population-based survey in 3 adjacent communities.Results: Among 5278 persons screened, 13 (0.2%) were positive by RDT and 123 (2.3%) by PCR. PCR-positive individuals were scattered over the study area, but logistic regression analysis suggested a propensity of these infections to cluster around RDT-positive individuals. The odds ratios for being PCR positive was 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.8-19.9) for those living in the household of an RDT-positive individual and 1.64 (1.0-2.8; P = .06) for those living within <300 m, compared with >1000 m. Treating everyone within households of RDT-positive individuals (1% population) would target 13% of those who are PCR positive. Treating all living within a radius of <300 or <1000 m (14% or 58% population) would target 30% or 66% of infections, respectively. Among 4431 serologically screened individuals, 26% were seropositive. Treating everyone within seropositive households (63% population) would target 77% of PCR-positive individuals.Conclusions: Presumptive malaria treatment seemed justified within RDT-positive households and potentially worth considering within, for example, a radius of <300 m. Serology was not discriminative enough in identifying ongoing infections for improving focal interventions in this setting but may rather be useful to detect larger transmission foci.
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| 4. |
- Connolly, Stuart J, et al.
(författare)
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Rivaroxaban with or without aspirin in patients with stable coronary artery disease: an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.
- 2018
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Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 391:10117, s. 205-218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coronary artery disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and is a consequence of acute thrombotic events involving activation of platelets and coagulation proteins. Factor Xa inhibitors and aspirin each reduce thrombotic events but have not yet been tested in combination or against each other in patients with stable coronary artery disease.In this multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, outpatient trial, patients with stable coronary artery disease or peripheral artery disease were recruited at 602 hospitals, clinics, or community centres in 33 countries. This paper reports on patients with coronary artery disease. Eligible patients with coronary artery disease had to have had a myocardial infarction in the past 20 years, multi-vessel coronary artery disease, history of stable or unstable angina, previous multi-vessel percutaneous coronary intervention, or previous multi-vessel coronary artery bypass graft surgery. After a 30-day run in period, patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive rivaroxaban (2·5 mg orally twice a day) plus aspirin (100 mg once a day), rivaroxaban alone (5 mg orally twice a day), or aspirin alone (100 mg orally once a day). Randomisation was computer generated. Each treatment group was double dummy, and the patients, investigators, and central study staff were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome of the COMPASS trial was the occurrence of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01776424, and is closed to new participants.Between March 12, 2013, and May 10, 2016, 27 395 patients were enrolled to the COMPASS trial, of whom 24 824 patients had stable coronary artery disease from 558 centres. The combination of rivaroxaban plus aspirin reduced the primary outcome more than aspirin alone (347 [4%] of 8313 vs 460 [6%] of 8261; hazard ratio [HR] 0·74, 95% CI 0·65-0·86, p<0·0001). By comparison, treatment with rivaroxaban alone did not significantly improve the primary outcome when compared with treatment with aspirin alone (411 [5%] of 8250 vs 460 [6%] of 8261; HR 0·89, 95% CI 0·78-1·02, p=0·094). Combined rivaroxaban plus aspirin treatment resulted in more major bleeds than treatment with aspirin alone (263 [3%] of 8313 vs 158 [2%] of 8261; HR 1·66, 95% CI 1·37-2·03, p<0·0001), and similarly, more bleeds were seen in the rivaroxaban alone group than in the aspirin alone group (236 [3%] of 8250 vs 158 [2%] of 8261; HR 1·51, 95% CI 1·23-1·84, p<0·0001). The most common site of major bleeding was gastrointestinal, occurring in 130 [2%] patients who received combined rivaroxaban plus aspirin, in 84 [1%] patients who received rivaroxaban alone, and in 61 [1%] patients who received aspirin alone. Rivaroxaban plus aspirin reduced mortality when compared with aspirin alone (262 [3%] of 8313 vs 339 [4%] of 8261; HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·65-0·90, p=0·0012).In patients with stable coronary artery disease, addition of rivaroxaban to aspirin lowered major vascular events, but increased major bleeding. There was no significant increase in intracranial bleeding or other critical organ bleeding. There was also a significant net benefit in favour of rivaroxaban plus aspirin and deaths were reduced by 23%. Thus, addition of rivaroxaban to aspirin has the potential to substantially reduce morbidity and mortality from coronary artery disease worldwide.Bayer AG.
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| 5. |
- Cook, Jackie, et al.
(författare)
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Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) for point-of-care detection of asymptomatic low-density malaria parasite carriers in Zanzibar
- 2015
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Ingår i: Malaria Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1475-2875 .- 1475-2875. ; 14, s. 43-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Asymptomatic, low parasite density malaria infections are difficult to detect with currently available point-of-care diagnostics. This study piloted a loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) kit for field-friendly, high-throughput detection of asymptomatic malaria infections during mass screening and treatment (MSAT) in Zanzibar, a malaria pre-elimination setting. Methods: Screening took place in three known hotspot areas prior to the short rains in November. Finger-prick blood was taken for screening by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and LAMP and collected on filter paper for subsequent polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analyses. LAMP results were compared to RDT and to PCR using McNemar's test. Results: Approximately 1,000 people were screened. RDT detected ten infections (1.0% (95% CI 0.3-1.6)) whilst both LAMP and PCR detected 18 (1.8% (95% CI 0.9-2.6)) infections. However, PCR identified three infections that LAMP did not detect and vice versa. LAMP testing was easy to scale-up in field conditions requiring minimal training and equipment, with results ready one to three hours after screening. Conclusions: Despite lower than expected prevalence, LAMP detected a higher number of infections than the currently used diagnostic, RDT. LAMP is a field-friendly, sensitive diagnostic test that could be useful for MSAT malaria campaigns which require quick results to enable prompt treatment.
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| 6. |
- Cook, Jackie, et al.
(författare)
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Mass Screening and Treatment on the Basis of Results of a Plasmodium falciparum-Specific Rapid Diagnostic Test Did Not Reduce Malaria Incidence in Zanzibar
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Internet Journal of Infectious Diseases. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1528-8366 .- 0022-1899 .- 1537-6613. ; 211:9, s. 1476-1483
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Seasonal increases in malaria continue in hot spots in Zanzibar. Mass screening and treatment (MSAT) may help reduce the reservoir of infection; however, it is unclear whether rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) detect a sufficient proportion of low-density infections to influence subsequent transmission.METHODS: Two rounds of MSAT using Plasmodium falciparum-specific RDT were conducted in 5 hot spots (population, 12 000) in Zanzibar in 2012. In parallel, blood samples were collected on filter paper for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analyses. Data on confirmed malarial parasite infections from health facilities in intervention and hot spot control areas were monitored as proxy for malaria transmission.RESULTS: Approximately 64% of the population (7859) were screened at least once. P. falciparum prevalence, as measured by RDT, was 0.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], .1%-.3%) in both rounds, compared with PCR measured prevalences (for all species) of 2.5% (95% CI, 2.1%-2.9%) and 3.8% (95% CI, 3.2%-4.4%) in rounds 1 and 2, respectively. Two fifths (40%) of infections detected by PCR included non-falciparum species. Treatment of RDT-positive individuals (4% of the PCR-detected parasite carriers) did not reduce subsequent malaria incidence, compared with control areas.CONCLUSIONS: Highly sensitive point-of-care diagnostic tools for detection of all human malaria species are needed to make MSAT an effective strategy in settings where malaria elimination programs are in the pre-elimination phase.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Morris, Ulrika, et al.
(författare)
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Field deployment of loop-mediated isothermal amplification for centralized mass-screening of asymptomatic malaria in Zanzibar : a pre-elimination setting
- 2015
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Ingår i: Malaria Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1475-2875 .- 1475-2875. ; 14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Molecular tools for detection of low-density asymptomatic Plasmodium infections are needed in malaria elimination efforts. This study reports results from the hitherto largest implementation of loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) for centralized mass screening of asymptomatic malaria in Zanzibar.METHODS: Healthy individuals present and willing to participate in randomly selected households in 60 villages throughout Zanzibar were screened for malaria by rapid diagnostic tests (RDT). In 50 % of the study households, participants were asked to provide 60 μL of finger-prick blood for additional LAMP screening. LAMP was conducted in two centralized laboratories in Zanzibar, by trained technicians with limited or no previous experience of molecular methods. The LAMP assay was performed with Loopamp(TM) MALARIA Pan/Pf Detection Kit (Eiken Chemical Company, Japan). Samples positive for Plasmodium genus (Pan)-LAMP were re-tested using Plasmodium falciparum-specific LAMP kits.RESULTS: Paired RDT and LAMP samples were available from 3983 individuals. The prevalence of asymptomatic malaria was 0.5 % (CI 95 % 0.1-0.8) and 1.6 % (CI 95 % 1.1-2.2) by RDT and Pan-LAMP, respectively. LAMP detected 3.4 (CI 95 % 2.2-5.2) times more Plasmodium positive samples than RDT. DNA contamination was experienced, but solved by repetitive decontamination of all equipment and reagents.CONCLUSIONS: LAMP is a simple and sensitive molecular tool, and has potential in active surveillance and mass-screening programmes for detection of low-density asymptomatic malaria in pre-elimination settings. However, in order to deploy LAMP more effectively in field settings, protocols may need to be adapted for processing larger numbers of samples. A higher throughput, affordable closed system would be ideal to avoid contamination.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Vigorito, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Fine-Scale Mapping at 9p22.2 Identifies Candidate Causal Variants That Modify Ovarian Cancer Risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers
- 2016
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Population-based genome wide association studies have identified a locus at 9p22.2 associated with ovarian cancer risk, which also modifies ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. We conducted fine-scale mapping at 9p22.2 to identify potential causal variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Genotype data were available for 15,252 (2,462 ovarian cancer cases) BRCA1 and 8,211 (631 ovarian cancer cases) BRCA2 mutation carriers. Following genotype imputation, ovarian cancer associations were assessed for 4,873 and 5,020 SNPs in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers respectively, within a retrospective cohort analytical framework. In BRCA1 mutation carriers one set of eight correlated candidate causal variants for ovarian cancer risk modification was identified (top SNP rs10124837, HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.68 to 0.79, p-value 2x 10-16). These variants were located up to 20 kb upstream of BNC2. In BRCA2 mutation carriers one region, up to 45 kb upstream of BNC2, and containing 100 correlated SNPs was identified as candidate causal (top SNP rs62543585, HR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.80, p-value 1.0 x 10-6). The candidate causal in BRCA1 mutation carriers did not include the strongest associated variant at this locus in the general population. In sum, we identified a set of candidate causal variants in a region that encompasses the BNC2 transcription start site. The ovarian cancer association at 9p22.2 may be mediated by different variants in BRCA1 mutation carriers and in the general population. Thus, potentially different mechanisms may underlie ovarian cancer risk for mutation carriers and the general population.
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