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Sökning: onr:"swepub:oai:DiVA.org:umu-143434" > Projections of temp...

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios

Gasparrini, Antonio (författare)
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Guo, Yuming (författare)
Monash University,University of Queensland
Sera, Francesco (författare)
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
visa fler...
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria (författare)
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Huber, Veronika (författare)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Tong, Shilu (författare)
Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Queensland University of Technology
de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline (författare)
University of São Paulo
Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario (författare)
University of São Paulo
Lavigne, Eric (författare)
University of Ottawa
Matus Correa, Patricia (författare)
Universidad de los Andes, Chile
Valdes Ortega, Nicolas (författare)
Universidad de los Andes, Chile
Kan, Haidong (författare)
Fudan University
Osorio, Samuel (författare)
University of São Paulo
Kyselý, Jan (författare)
Czech University of Life Sciences Prague,University of Oulu,Oulu University Hospital
Urban, Aleš (författare)
Jaakkola, Jouni J. K. (författare)
Ryti, Niilo R. I. (författare)
Oulu University Hospital,University of Oulu
Pascal, Mathilde (författare)
French National Public Health Agency
Goodman, Patrick G. (författare)
Dublin Institute of Technology
Zeka, Ariana (författare)
Brunel University London
Michelozzi, Paola (författare)
Scortichini, Matteo (författare)
Hashizume, Masahiro (författare)
Nagasaki University
Honda, Yasushi (författare)
University of Tsukuba
Hurtado-Diaz, Magali (författare)
National Institute of Public Health, Mexico
Cesar Cruz, Julio (författare)
National Institute of Public Health, Mexico
Seposo, Xerxes (författare)
Kyoto University
Kim, Ho (författare)
Seoul National University
Tobias, Aurelio (författare)
CSIC Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA)
Iñiguez, Carmen (författare)
University of Valencia
Forsberg, Bertil (författare)
Umeå University,Umeå universitet,Yrkes- och miljömedicin
Oudin Åström, Daniel (författare)
Umeå University,Lund University,Lunds universitet,Umeå universitet,Yrkes- och miljömedicin,Allmänmedicin, kardiovaskulär epidemiologi och levnadsvanor,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Family Medicine, Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Lifestyle,Lund University Research Groups
Ragettli, Martina S. (författare)
University of Basel,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
Guo, Yue Leon (författare)
National Taiwan University
Wu, Chang-Fu (författare)
National Taiwan University
Zanobetti, Antonella (författare)
Harvard University
Schwartz, Joel (författare)
Harvard University
Bell, Michelle L. (författare)
Yale University
Dang, Tran Ngoc (författare)
Duy Tan University,Ho Chi Minh City Medicine and Pharmacy University
Van, Dung Do (författare)
Ho Chi Minh City Medicine and Pharmacy University
Heaviside, Clare (författare)
Public Health England,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Vardoulakis, Sotiris (författare)
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM), Edinburgh
Hajat, Shakoor (författare)
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Haines, Andy (författare)
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Armstrong, Ben (författare)
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
visa färre...
 (creator_code:org_t)
2017
2017
Engelska.
Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - 2542-5196. ; 1:9, s. e360-e367
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
Abstract Ämnesord
Stäng  
  • Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Hälsovetenskap -- Arbetsmedicin och miljömedicin (hsv//swe)
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Health Sciences -- Occupational Health and Environmental Health (hsv//eng)
NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)

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